Hedera is entering a risky zone. In the past month, buying pressure has decreased by almost 90%, and the HBAR price continues to drop. The entire cryptocurrency market is trying to find a bottom, but Hedera is not showing the same reaction on the charts.
Buyers are not stepping in during the down market. At this point, a downward breakout is not a low probability outcome. It now seems like the base scenario.
Spot buying has almost disappeared... the decline continues
The HBAR spot market is showing the most distinct warning signs.
In the week ending November 10, Hedera recorded a spot outflow of about $26.7 million. This indicates a strong buying momentum as coins left the exchange. In the week ending December 15, this amount decreased to $2.4 million. This shows that buying pressure has dropped by about 90% over a little more than a month.
The reason this is important is that the price is already moving within a declining channel. When buyers disappear, even small selling pressure can easily push the price down in a bear market. The market becomes more vulnerable.
The Money Flow Index (MFI) reaffirms this weakness. MFI looks at capital inflow and outflow by simultaneously utilizing price and volume. In the case of HBAR, the MFI has continued to lower its lows alongside the price and has now entered the oversold zone. It continues to follow a downward trend without a rebound.
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As a result, the absence of lower-level buying suggests that price-related confidence is very weak.
Reasons for highlighting the HBAR price decline scenario
With weak spot demand and increased outflows, the price movement of HBAR becomes the final judgment criterion.
HBAR is located near the lower boundary of the declining channel. The first major observation price is $0.106. If this support line is breached based on daily closing, the next decline target is around $0.095, which is about 12% lower than the current level. If this price level is reached, a clear bearish breakdown will be confirmed, and the $0.078 level may also be mentioned.
This movement confirms that it is not a temporary decline but a continuation of the downward trend.
To overcome the bearish trend, significant changes are needed for HBAR. It must reclaim several resistance levels and close around $0.155 on the daily chart. Given the current situation of collapsing spot buying and weak MFI, the likelihood of this scenario materializing seems low.
The conclusion is clear. With buyers exiting in droves and capital flow decreasing, in a state where prices are trapped in a bearish structure, the decline is no longer just a simple risk factor. At this point, it is the base scenario, i.e., the most likely outcome.
