Family! Yesterday, when Japan raised interest rates, this 'shoe' dropped, and the US stock and crypto markets directly started a 'rebound party'. Many novice brothers shouted in the background, 'The bull is back! Hurry up and return!' — Hold on! Don't let this short-term trend cloud your judgment! Today, I want to share my heartfelt thoughts with you: Is this rebound a real turning point, or just a 'trap to lure in buyers'? Are those analysts shouting that BTC will hit 100,000 next week drinking fake liquor?
Let's get to the conclusion first: The bad news has never truly been exhausted. The current rebound is at most 'an emotional release after the bad news lands', which is normal but don't be overly optimistic. Let's break down two key issues, both of which are solid takeaways, so take good notes!
First question: Is Japan's rate hike really the 'end of negative news'? Think again! I have emphasized countless times that Japan's rate hike is never a script of 'falling on the day itself' but rather a 'delayed strike'—except for special cases where the rate hike day falls at the end of the month, usually, there’s a small rebound on the day of the rate hike, with a real deep pullback occurring around a week later. The last rate hike on January 23 is the best example; the market was all red that day, and many people rushed in to bottom-fish, but a week later, they were directly 'rubbed on the ground', with the deep pullback coming quickly and violently. This rebound is just the first half of history repeating itself.
Looking at the Federal Reserve side, don't just focus on Japan and forget about the 'big brother.' The probability of a rate cut in January next year is currently at 24.8%—how low is this probability? It’s equivalent to the odds of getting 'another cup' when buying bubble tea; basically negligible. Without the Federal Reserve's rate cut endorsement, is it realistic for the market to rely on its own strength to break out into a bull market? It’s as difficult as getting me to not stay up late watching the market.
The second key point: From next Wednesday to Friday, it will be another 'brutal battlefield' of longs and shorts! I’ve organized the three most critical information nodes for next week, each of which could become a 'fuse' for market movement.
December 24 (Wednesday): Minutes of the Japanese monetary policy meeting will be published—this contains clues about Japan's future monetary policy. If it reveals signals of 'continuing to raise interest rates', the market will likely be doused with cold water.
December 25 (Thursday): The US stock market is closed, and Trump may announce the next Federal Reserve Chair nominee—the closure of the US stock market means that market liquidity will decrease, allowing small funds to trigger large fluctuations. Coupled with the 'uncertainty bomb' of the Federal Reserve Chair nominee, the market will likely experience a 'volatile' rhythm that day.
December 26 (Friday): Japan's December CPI data will be released—the inflation data directly affects the direction of monetary policy. If inflation exceeds expectations, the previous rate hike expectations may heat up again, putting pressure on the market.
So my personal judgment is that the short-term market from Wednesday to Friday next week will likely be 'twisted' like this week: there will be rebounds, but don't expect too much; deep pullbacks are also possible, and both sides of longs and shorts will have a hard time. I suggest novice traders not to operate frequently, or you will easily be 'harvested' by both sides.
Let’s analyze the situation of BTC from a technical perspective; this part is hardcore content. If you don't understand it, you can save it and watch it repeatedly! The night before last, BTC fell to the lower band of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands near 84,408, and yesterday it directly 'V-shaped rebounded', surging up to the upper band near 89,350. Here, it’s important to note that around 84,400 is not only the lower band of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands but also the lower band of the 10-day Bollinger Bands, and there has been a stop-loss signal here. This is also why this week’s lowest point appeared here.
However, BTC is currently encountering resistance around 89,350 and is oscillating between the middle and upper bands. From the indicators below the 1-hour level, they are currently all above the zero axis. Compared to the previous two days, the market has indeed slightly strengthened, but this does not mean that the trend has reversed. Here are the main resistance levels for next week (which are also high short points to watch): First level 89,385/89,515, second level 90,185, third level 90,750; if it can break through 90,750, then it will also face 92,250, 93,050, and near the upper band of the daily Bollinger Bands around 94,150/94,250—those shouting for 100,000 should first see if 94,150 can be smoothly broken through before talking, don’t just paint a big pie without looking at the actual resistance.
Additionally, there are two important signals to remind you of: the 12-hour level and the daily level currently have a need for a rebound, with the rebound peak likely around 88,800 and 89,385. After reaching these levels, if the market does not have sustained volume support, a pullback is very likely.
Finally, let me mention a medium to long-term risk point, which is also a key opportunity in the next two weeks: on the 15th and 20th, the MACD at these levels will successively return to the zero axis. When the MACD at these two levels reaches the zero axis, BTC will likely revisit the area around 80,000 and below; that will be the real bottom-fishing opportunity worth paying attention to—however, as for which exact point to buy in and how to control positions, there’s no need to rush now. I will inform you as soon as the signals appear.
To summarize: the current market has a huge divide between bulls and bears. The rebound is a short-term emotional release, not the beginning of a bull market. Next week, focus on the information from Wednesday to Friday and avoid the risk of pullbacks within the week. Don't be misled by analysts’ '100,000 slogans.'
Finally, a heartfelt message to my family: The more chaotic the market is, the more we must remain rational. I will continue to follow the Japanese CPI data, the dynamics of the Federal Reserve, and the situation of the MACD returning to the zero axis. Any trading opportunities will be promptly communicated in the comments section and in the fan group. If you haven't followed me yet, quickly hit that follow button; otherwise, when the market fluctuates next time, you won’t be able to find me, this 'veteran', to help you avoid pitfalls! Do you think BTC can break 90,000 next week? Feel free to leave comments for discussion!
