As an old investor who has been in the cryptocurrency market for many years, I am accustomed to observing the true market trends from on-chain data. Recently, the change in XRP's holding distribution is quite interesting— to be among the top 10% of holders, one needs to hold at least 2314 XRP (approximately $4700). Behind this threshold, I think there are a few points worth discussing.
1. The 'accumulation' signal from large whales is more authentic than price fluctuations
I have always believed that the dynamics of large whale wallets reflect trends earlier than candlestick charts. Data from October this year shows that the number of wallets holding over 10,000 XRP has surged to a historical high of 317,500, while the XRP balance on exchanges has dropped to the lowest point since 2018.
What does this indicate? Large holders are quietly withdrawing tokens from exchanges, either to lock in long-term positions or to prepare for on-chain activities such as staking and lending. This kind of 'supply tightening' can easily trigger price surges when faced with sudden demand.
2. The threshold of 2300 XRP might represent a 'margin of safety' for retail investors.
The concentration of XRP holdings has always been high (the top 100 addresses control about 68% of the supply), but the threshold for the top 10% has actually decreased since last year, indicating that small retail investors are gradually exiting, while the stability of holdings among medium to large holders is improving.
For me, 2314 XRP represents a 'position cost'—it's not so small that it gets shaken out by fluctuations, yet it provides enough exposure in a trend. Historically, every time XRP breaks key resistance (like $2.15), the average return in the next round of rises can cover the investment at this threshold (for example, the 94% surge in average daily trading volume in Q3 2024 is a precursor).
3. Don't overlook ecological progress: smart contracts and Ripple's custody lock-up.
Although many people complain about XRP's 'centralization', Ripple's custody mechanism (unlocking 1 billion XRP each month, with 60% being re-locked) actually reduces selling pressure. More importantly, XRPL proposed native smart contract functionality in 2025, which, if realized, could drive a surge in DeFi and on-chain applications.
My own strategy is: layout before ecological upgrades, and take partial profits after the news becomes clear. After all, everyone understands XRP's volatility, and chasing highs can easily lead to being caught in the middle of a rise.
4. Risk Warning: Legal issues and large holder sell-offs remain hidden dangers.
Of course, let's temper expectations: Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen once sold $175 million worth of XRP in one go in July 2025, and such sell-offs have a significant negative impact on short-term sentiment.
Additionally, whether there will be new changes in U.S. regulations affecting Ripple's business needs to be continuously monitored. My position management principle is: no single cryptocurrency should exceed 15% of total assets to avoid being caught off guard by black swan events.
Summarizing my views.
Short-term: New lows in exchange balances + large whales increasing holdings, if the technical level can stabilize at $2.15, there is hope to test the $2.6 resistance.
Long-term: The threshold of 2314 XRP reflects that holdings are concentrating among 'patient holders', suitable for regular investment, but a stop-loss line needs to be set (for example, reducing positions below $1.8).
Market sentiment changes too quickly; it's better to focus on on-chain data for decision-making. After all, wallet balances don't lie. Follow Xiang Ge to learn more about first-hand information and insights in the crypto space, and become your guide in the crypto world; learning is your greatest wealth!#巨鲸动向 #加密市场观察 $ETH
