In the market of sideways agony, most people's patience is being worn away, while the real signals have long been evident in the macro data.
When I opened the PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) chart and overlaid it with the Bitcoin trend, I almost spilled my coffee—the correlation is as solid as if it were welded. Those who are still endlessly discussing the failure of the four-year cycle probably do not understand that the business cycle is the true main character.
The current sideways market is not the disappearance of the 'halving bubble', but rather a beach ball pinned underwater by the business cycle. The greater the pressure, the more intense the subsequent rebound. The market is never wrong; only people's perspectives can be wrong.
01 The truth about consolidation: The business cycle is 'washing out' positions.
The most dangerous aspect of the market is often not volatility, but collective cognitive biases. While most people focus on the halving narrative, a more powerful force is quietly at work.
PMI, as a leading indicator of economic activity, exhibits astonishing synchrony with Bitcoin price trends. This connection is not a coincidence but reveals the flow patterns of capital under changes in the macro environment.
When expectations for economic expansion strengthen, risk assets often attract incremental funding; conversely, when contraction signals emerge, tightening liquidity can suppress assets like Bitcoin. The current consolidation is a critical juncture of this power balance.
Those traders who doubt themselves due to short-term fluctuations, as the CTO of Messari said: 'If you can't explain why the price is falling, you are unlikely to judge when the price will stop falling.'
02 The linkage between PMI and BTC: Data doesn't lie.
Reviewing historical data, PMI turning points often lead or coincide with significant price reversals in Bitcoin. This relationship has been validated across multiple cycles.
2020-2021 cycle: While PMI rebounded rapidly from its trough, Bitcoin entered an epic bull market.
2022 contraction period: The continuous decline of PMI starkly contrasts with the Bitcoin bear market.
Recent consolidation phase: PMI's oscillation at the critical point of expansion and contraction highly coincides with Bitcoin's fluctuation pattern.
Blockchain is the most transparent financial system ever, with every transaction and wallet transfer being publicly traceable. But most people only look at price charts and dare to claim they have done their research.
The real information asymmetry does not lie in data acquisition but in interpretation and integration abilities. When you deeply understand the transmission mechanism between PMI and asset prices, you can remain clear-headed when others are confused.
03 Say goodbye to 'follower mentality', cultivate independent analytical skills.
In the echo chamber of crypto Twitter, every price movement spawns thousands of contradictory statements. Followers will never catch up to every market party because they try to replicate others' thought models while being oblivious to the underlying logic.
Cultivating independent analytical skills is key to overcoming this dilemma. This means:
Diverse reading: Look not only at popular tweets but also explore niche but high-quality research reports and macro analyses.
Research data personally: Learn to use tools like Dune to query on-chain data directly instead of relying on second-hand information.
Writing to organize thoughts: Write down your trading arguments; this process will expose logical flaws and unverified assumptions.
When I started writing analysis reports, I found that those seemingly perfect trading arguments in my mind would reveal flaws once put into words. Writing is a visualization of thinking; it can help you avoid 90% of bad trades.
04 The next strategy: How to cope with the 'beach ball effect'.
A beach ball pressed underwater will eventually bounce up, and the greater the pressure, the higher the rebound. The key is to ensure you are still present when the ball pops up.
Successful traders focus not on making correct judgments but on effectively managing risks. This means:
Stay flexible: Hold strong opinions, but be ready to adjust based on market changes, just like wearing loose clothing.
Accept small losses: When the market is contrary to your expectations, accepting small losses is far wiser than allowing them to turn into large losses.
Dare to re-enter: Stay alert after exiting; when signals confirm, don't hesitate to re-enter.
In this narrative-driven market, those who can independently construct and analyze narratives hold a significant advantage. If you can discover the connection between PMI and Bitcoin weeks before the masses, you can seize the initiative when the market turns.
Next time you feel anxious when opening the price chart, consider switching to the PMI data interface first. You will find that the real signals have long been clearly displayed before everyone, but most people choose to ignore them.
The market is like surfing; your task is to read the waves like a surfer, not to try to control the ocean like a captain. When the undercurrent of PMI starts to turn, Bitcoin's surge may come quickly enough to catch those who exited early off guard.
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