U.S. Inflation & Unemployment Show Unexpected Trends in November 2025

The latest U.S. economic indicators released this week revealed surprising movements in both inflation and the labor market, offering mixed signals that policymakers and markets are closely watching as 2026 approaches.

Inflation slowed more than expected:

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year-over-year in November, down from earlier months and below market forecasts. The data—impacted by a 43-day federal government shutdown that disrupted price collection and data accuracy—suggests inflation eased across many categories, including food and energy. Economists warn that the disruption may have artificially lowered the inflation reading, especially since October price data could not be fully collected.

Unemployment climbed to a four-year high:

In contrast to inflation trends, the **U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest since late 2021, reflecting a cooling labor market despite the creation of 64,000 jobs during the month. Continued job losses in October and slower overall hiring momentum contributed to the higher jobless rate.

Labor market pain uneven across groups:

Certain demographics experienced sharper increases in unemployment, with teen and Black unemployment rates rising significantly, raising concerns about broader structural weakness in the labor market.

What this means:

Inflation appears to be easing, but data gaps mean caution is needed in interpretation.

Unemployment rising suggests the labor market is weakening faster than expected.

Policy implications: The Federal Reserve may factor these mixed signals into decisions on interest rates and economic support as 2026 unfolds.

In short, inflation and job growth moved in opposite directions in November, offering a complex economic picture that markets and policymakers must unpack carefully.