1) Is this rate hike "big enough"? 🧊 First, let's look at the facts: The Bank of Japan raised the policy interest rate by 25bp to 0.75% on 2025-12-19, reaching a new high in about 30 years. ✅ Reuters +1
Sounds intense, but in the global cost of capital system, it actually feels more like — slowly easing off the gas pedal, rather than slamming the brakes.
More crucially, the Bank of Japan itself emphasizes: even after the rate hike, the real interest rate remains "significantly negative," and the financial environment remains relatively loose ✅ Japan Society for Information and Systems in Education
➡️ Implicit translation: "Don't panic, we haven't planned to withdraw liquidity yet!"
2) What the market fears most is not the interest rate hike, but the "unexpected" ⚡ The core of the black swan = expectation difference + funding chain rupture
And this interest rate hike is a high-probability event: The market highly anticipated 25bp before the meeting (many institutions even included the path in their reports)
After the actual landing → uncertainty is eliminated ("the shoe drops")
So the results are quite common: 📌 No unexpected hawkish shocks occurred 📌 Leverage does not need to be urgently unwound 📌 It won't evolve into a market crash
3) The yen did not violently appreciate, so carry trades won't "explode instantly" 💴 Many people think: Japan's interest rate hike = yen skyrocketing = collapse of carry trades
But the reality is: After the interest rate hike, the yen actually weakens to the 156-157 range, and the market is more worried about fiscal and policy expectations, rather than crazily grabbing the yen✅ Financial Times +1
➡️ The yen did not experience a sudden surge = a safety signal: ✅ Those borrowing yen won't be instantly wiped out by exchange rate fluctuations ✅ Carry trade positions won't be forcibly liquidated in large quantities ✅ Risk assets (including crypto) won't be passively "collectively bled"
4) The chain of "interest rate hike = bearish for the crypto market" essentially relies on two conditions 🔗 To trigger a black swan in the crypto market, both must be met:
A. The cost of funds suddenly skyrockets 📈 but this time it's only from 0.5% to 0.75%, and still within Japan's "relatively loose" range (real interest rates are still negative)✅ Japan Society for Information Processing +1
B. Leverage / liquidity is so fragile that it explodes at a touch 🧨 If the market leverage is high and positions are squeezed, a little wind will cause "longs to kill longs / shorts to kill shorts"
However, from this market observation: After the macro event lands, risk appetite actually warms up (at least during the Asian session, BTC and ETH rose) ✅ CoinDesk
5) Why do some people see it as "positive"? 🧠 This point is counterintuitive but quite common: ✅ Bearish expectations were traded in advance: Many had already reduced positions / hedged before the meeting ✅ No more hawkish after the fact: The market starts to rebuild positions ("buy the fact") ✅ Japan is still not a high-interest-rate country: Global funds won't abandon the U.S. for Japan just because of 0.75%
Additionally, the Bank of Japan's stance is leaning towards "gradual normalization", many institutions judge that subsequent interest rate hikes may not come quickly✅ ING Think
➡️ The survival rule of the crypto market: The most dangerous thing is a "sharp turn", not "slowly turning the steering wheel"
6) Does this mean there is absolutely no risk? 🚨 Don't be too optimistic! The main risks are in the "follow-up": If the following situations occur in the future → then it is a recipe for a black swan: ❶ The Bank of Japan suddenly becomes more hawkish (continuous significant rate hikes / hints at quickly reaching neutral rates) ❷ The yen appreciates rapidly, triggering concentrated unwinding of carry trades ❸ Other global central banks tighten together + high leverage in risk assets
Do you think that "yen carry trades" will become the biggest hidden danger in the crypto market by 2026? 🤔
✅ Bearish: A big explosion will happen once
✅ Bullish: The impact has been exaggerated
Vote in the comments👇
⚠️ Risk Warning: This article is only an analysis of market mechanisms and does not constitute investment advice.
