$STX Waiting for the Bitcoin Ecosystem Narrative: No Other Way, Long-Term Layout is a Possible Strategy
I. Overall Trend Judgment (Core)
Current Situation: The moving average system is in a bearish alignment, with significant resistance. Although the rate of decline slowed near $0.25, this is more of a natural pause after selling pressure has subsided, rather than a surge in buying.
STX's medium-term trend is extremely weak. Currently, it is in the bottoming phase of a deep bear market. Although the price has returned to historical lows, it is difficult to achieve a rapid V-shaped rebound before a new narrative emerges in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
II. Key Levels
Resistance Levels (Selling Pressure Zone):
Short-term Resistance: $0.50 - $0.60. The last consolidation platform recently broken. After breaking down, this area has become strong resistance. Upon a rebound to this level, those trapped above will be eager to exit.
Strong Resistance: $1.00. An important round number and psychological dividing line. Only by regaining $1.00 can STX be said to have escaped the quagmire.
Support Levels (Defense Zone):
Lifeline: $0.20 - $0.25. The current trading range also represents the cost basis for accumulation over the past six months in 2023. This is the bulls' last line of defense. If it falls below $0.20, the downside will be uncharted territory.
Extreme Bottom: $0.15. Historically extreme low.
III. Volume Signals
Signal: Declining volume with a lack of turnover.
Volume has been shrinking recently, with no clear signs of a volume surge to halt the decline.
Interpretation: Liquidity is exhausted. The market has been "numbed" by the decline; major funds have exited, and retail investors are deeply trapped and holding on.
IV. Trading Strategy
For Holders: Extremely agonizing.
Having fallen by more than 90%, selling at a loss is pointless.
STX is the leader in the Bitcoin ecosystem; holding on is the only option. Wait for the spillover effect when Bitcoin breaks through to a new historical high. For those holding no positions: Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) on the left side.
Strategy: Now that it has returned to its starting point, the current $0.25 price level offers extremely high long-term returns.
Buy: It is recommended to build positions in batches within the $0.20-$0.25 range, as a seed player for cross-cycle investment.
Logic: Betting on the next bull market, with the Bitcoin ecosystem remaining the core narrative, targeting a return to $1.00 (4x potential).
V. Summary
STX has completed its "value reversion," and while this is the darkest moment, it also presents a good opportunity for long-term positioning.
