Recently looking at on-chain data, there is an interesting change: the supply and demand logic of BTC and ETH is clearly diverging.
First, the conclusion—this is not simply about “who is better,” but rather the market structure is changing.
On the Bitcoin side, the rhythm remains the same: the issuance path is clear, miner behavior is stable, the proportion of long-term holders is high, and there is not much change on the supply side. It resembles a “benchmark asset,” with fluctuations coming from the demand side rather than significant disturbances on the supply side.
Ethereum, on the other hand, operates under a completely different logic. Staking, fee burning, and long-term locking are pulling more and more ETH out of circulation. A very intuitive phenomenon can be observed on-chain: the ETH on exchanges is decreasing, but buying pressure has not increased correspondingly. This creates a somewhat awkward situation—supply is contracting, but demand has not kept pace.
Many people might instinctively feel: with reduced supply, prices should rise. The reality is not that simple. It now resembles a thinning liquidity situation rather than hot money flooding in. If the misalignment in supply and demand is not filled by new funds, it often leads to not a one-sided market, but rather oscillation, rotation, and even periodic pullbacks.
Historically, we have seen similar situations: when the supply and demand structure changes faster than the pace of funds, the market usually needs time to “digest.”
So I prefer to understand the current state as:
BTC is stable, ETH is changing; the structure is evolving, but the trend is not yet determined.
What’s truly critical next is not to watch the price, but to see—
Will the funds come in?
And which side will they choose first?
Understanding supply and demand is far more important than chasing candlestick patterns.
#ETH走势分析 #比特币流动性
First, the conclusion—this is not simply about “who is better,” but rather the market structure is changing.
On the Bitcoin side, the rhythm remains the same: the issuance path is clear, miner behavior is stable, the proportion of long-term holders is high, and there is not much change on the supply side. It resembles a “benchmark asset,” with fluctuations coming from the demand side rather than significant disturbances on the supply side.
Ethereum, on the other hand, operates under a completely different logic. Staking, fee burning, and long-term locking are pulling more and more ETH out of circulation. A very intuitive phenomenon can be observed on-chain: the ETH on exchanges is decreasing, but buying pressure has not increased correspondingly. This creates a somewhat awkward situation—supply is contracting, but demand has not kept pace.
Many people might instinctively feel: with reduced supply, prices should rise. The reality is not that simple. It now resembles a thinning liquidity situation rather than hot money flooding in. If the misalignment in supply and demand is not filled by new funds, it often leads to not a one-sided market, but rather oscillation, rotation, and even periodic pullbacks.
Historically, we have seen similar situations: when the supply and demand structure changes faster than the pace of funds, the market usually needs time to “digest.”
So I prefer to understand the current state as:
BTC is stable, ETH is changing; the structure is evolving, but the trend is not yet determined.
What’s truly critical next is not to watch the price, but to see—
Will the funds come in?
And which side will they choose first?
Understanding supply and demand is far more important than chasing candlestick patterns.
#ETH走势分析 #比特币流动性
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