Looking back at 23 predictions for 2025 from Galaxy Research - surprising accuracy

1. Bitcoin

❌Bitcoin will exceed $150k in H1 and touch or exceed $185k in Q4 2025 → Only reached ATH $126k, currently trading at $80-90k.

❌US Spot Bitcoin ETP exceeds $250bn AUM → Only reached $141bn.

❌Bitcoin again is the top performing asset on a risk-adjusted basis → Initially correct but by the end of the year has a negative Sharpe ratio.

✅At least one top wealth management platform recommends allocation ≥2% Bitcoin → Morgan Stanley recommends up to 4-40%.

❌5 Nasdaq 100 companies and 5 nation-states/SWF add Bitcoin to their balance sheets → Did not achieve the exact number, but ~180 companies globally and >5 countries did so.

❌Bitcoin developers reach consensus on the next protocol upgrade → Did not achieve, even had disputes over spam transactions.

✅More than half of the top 20 public Bitcoin miners transition to or collaborate with hyperscalers/AI/HPC → 18/20 miners announced a shift.

2. Ethereum

❌Ether exceeds $5,500 → Did not achieve, although there was a brief ATH.

❌Ethereum staking rate exceeds 50% → Only reached a peak of ~29.7%.

❌ETH/BTC ratio trades below 0.03 and above 0.045 → Achieved below but only up to a maximum of 0.04324

❌L2s collectively create more economic activity than Alt L1s → No, Solana and Hyperliquid dominate.

3. DeFi

✅DeFi enters the “dividend era” with ≥$1 billion distributed from treasury/revenue sharing → Achieved at least $1.042 billion buybacks

✅Onchain governance resurgence with futarchy, active voters increase ≥20% → Correct, especially on Solana with MetaDAO.

4. Banks and Stablecoins

❌Top 4 custody banks (BNY, JPM, State Street, Citi) all custody digital assets → 3/4 do or have announced plans.

=→ So these 23 predictions for 2025 are correct 7/23, with an accuracy rate of ~30%

- Not sure how many predictions for 2026 will be correct, folks?