The crypto market isn’t just trading charts right now it’s trying to read Congress.

At the center of the uncertainty is the long-awaited crypto market structure bill, a piece of legislation meant to finally answer a basic question: who regulates what in crypto? After years of enforcement-first policy, the industry hoped this bill would bring clarity. Instead, its outlook has become harder to predict.

The biggest sticking point remains jurisdiction. Lawmakers are still divided over how authority should be split between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Crypto firms want clearer definitions so tokens aren’t retroactively labeled securities. Regulators, on the other hand, are cautious about giving up power or creating loopholes that could weaken investor protections.

Politics are slowing things further. With elections approaching, appetite for complex, controversial legislation has faded. Even lawmakers who support clearer crypto rules admit that timing is becoming a problem. The bill hasn’t collapsed—but it’s no longer moving with urgency.

Behind the scenes, negotiations continue. Industry groups are still lobbying heavily, and staffers are refining language to make the bill more “passable.” But expectations have shifted. What once looked like a near-term breakthrough now feels more like a drawn-out process that could slip into the next Congress.

For markets, this limbo matters. Without clear rules, institutions remain cautious, startups hesitate to scale in the U.S., and enforcement actions keep shaping behavior instead of legislation. In other words, regulation uncertainty is still a bigger driver than fundamentals.

The current prognosis? Alive, but fragile. The market structure bill isn’t dead but it’s no longer on a fast track. Until Washington decides, crypto remains stuck in a gray zone, waiting for rules that everyone agrees are overdue.