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"2025 is the darkest year for the crypto market and the dawn of the institutional era. This is a fundamental shift in market structure, while most people are still viewing the new era through the logic of the old cycle. The 2025 crypto market review shows a paradigm shift from retail speculation to institutional allocation, with core data indicating institutional holdings at 24%, retail exit at 66%, and the crypto market turnover completed. Although BTC fell by 5.4% in 2025, it reached a historic high of $126,080 during the period. Market dominance has shifted from retail to institutions. Institutions continue to build positions at "high levels" because they focus not on price, but on cycles. Retail is selling, while institutions are buying. Currently, this is not the "top of the bull market," but rather the "institutional accumulation period" $BTC

There are mid-term elections. The historical rule is that "policy precedes election years," so the investment logic should be: the first half of 2026 is a policy honeymoon period with institutional allocation, optimistic about the market; the second half of 2026 sees political uncertainty and increased volatility. However, risks still exist, such as Federal Reserve policy, a strong dollar, potential delays in market structure legislation, continued selling by long-term holders, and uncertainty around mid-term election results. But the other side of risk is opportunity; when everyone is bearish, it is often the best time to position.

Short-term (3-6 months): $87,000-$95,000 range fluctuations, institutions continue to build positions.
Mid-term (first half of 2026): Policy and institutional dual drivers, target $120,000-$150,000.
Long-term (second half of 2026): Increased volatility, watch election results and policy continuity.

This is not the cycle top, but the starting point of a new cycle. 2025 marks the acceleration of the institutionalization process in the crypto market. Despite BTC's annual return being negative, ETF investors demonstrate strong HODL resilience. On the surface, 2025 is the worst year for crypto, but in reality: the largest scale of supply turnover, the strongest willingness for institutional allocation, the clearest policy support, and the most extensive infrastructure improvement. Although prices fell by 5%, ETF inflows of $25 billion indicate optimism for the first half of 2026. Key points for 2026 include: legislative progress on market structure bills, potential expansion of strategic Bitcoin reserves, and policy continuity after the mid-term elections. In the long run, improvements in ETF infrastructure and regulatory clarity lay the foundation for the next round of upward movement. When the market structure undergoes fundamental changes, old valuation logic will fail, and new pricing power will be rebuilt.
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