According to ME News, on December 22 (UTC+8), macroeconomist Henrik Zeberg published an article on the X platform, arguing that the Federal Reserve, with over 400 PhDs in economics, has missed an obvious and illuminating economic pattern. He stated that we are heading towards a massive recession, which the Fed, despite having ample resources, has ignored. Zeberg emphasized that understanding the correct sequence of events in the business cycle is crucial for predicting recessions, and the Fed's current projections underestimate the severity and timing of the impending downturn. The report states that he believes the unemployment rate precedes every major recession and remains a "never-wrong" indicator. The US unemployment rate reached 4.6% in November, the highest level in four years, approaching the recession threshold set by the SAM rule and pushing the probability of a recession to approximately 40%. (Source: ME)