Under the absolute sovereignty of capital, the so-called "small households" are essentially observers in an information vacuum.
You have no insider information, which means your trading delays are not measured in milliseconds, but in generations. When you try to seek the truth from the shadows of candlestick charts and the lagging indicators of options data, you are not predicting the future; you are merely wishing on a star that has already exploded light-years ago.
Late to the game? No, that’s just picking up the residual warmth in the debris.
The market has already made everything clear, so why still come to see my analysis?
Most people are not looking for Alpha (excess returns); they are just seeking a kind of "logical sedative."
They come here not to correct erroneous algorithms, but to find a high-level endorsement for their cognitive biases.
They crave recognition, yearning for someone to tell them that that meaningless holding on is called "perseverance," and that destructive gambling is called "faith."
They are not trading in the market; they are trading their own anxiety.
Mathematically, continuous losses have never been a matter of luck; they are a systemic feedback failure.
If you keep losing, it indicates an irreconcilable logical conflict between your underlying code and the objective truth of the market.
Losses are the only and most honest way the market communicates with you; it tells you through asset depreciation: your model has failed, your boundaries have been breached.
Do not think this is cruel.
In my world, the scariest thing is not losing, but "not knowing why you are winning." Because at least losses provide a clear logical endpoint; they force you to face that truth you have been avoiding: you are not playing a game; you are just being harvested. $ETH
