The final wave of altcoin slaughter in 2025!
The first thing I did when I woke up in the morning wasn't to collect money, but to see my holdings all in blood red. The 300 USD altcoin trial position opened last night was pierced like paper at a stop loss of 5 USD; this is probably the coldest prelude to Christmas this year.
If you woke up this morning to find that your altcoin holdings have shrunk again, don't worry, you're not alone. Just last night, a whale nicknamed 'Insider Brother' sold 8,000 ETH and 280 BTC in one hour, losing over $1.01 million before exiting.
This Thursday, there are also $23 billion in Bitcoin options expiring, and the market is bound to be turbulent.
1. 2025: The 'silent death' of altcoins
This year's market can be summarized in one word: mainstream retreat, altcoin collapse.
Data shows that the altcoin equal-weighted index has fallen below the 2022 low, hitting a historic low. As of mid-December, the small-cap token index has dropped to a four-year low, with the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies evaporating by over $1 trillion.
Even crypto hedge funds are not spared; directional funds have fallen by 2.5% this year, while funds focused on altcoins have seen deeper declines, with a drawdown of about 23%.
Why have altcoins died so tragically this year?
Three major reasons hang like three swords over the altcoin market:
First, Bitcoin's 'vampiric effect' is becoming increasingly frenzied. The US spot Bitcoin ETF has attracted huge capital from traditional institutions, and this capital is almost exclusively flowing into Bitcoin.
Second, global liquidity is tightening. The Bank of Japan has raised interest rates, and the Federal Reserve is maintaining high rates, significantly limiting the scale and momentum of speculative hot money.
Third, altcoins themselves lack new narratives. The year 2025 is almost an innovation vacuum, with hardly any significant technological breakthroughs aside from sporadic hype around celebrity coins.
2. Christmas market: hope or trap?
Historical data shows that Bitcoin's average return rate in December reaches +9.48%, with seven out of ten years ending in profit.
However, this year is special. The brutal correction in November has lowered analysts' expectations for the Christmas rally from over 70% a month ago to 30-40%.
More crucially, the market structure has undergone fundamental changes. The once stable double-digit monthly returns are tending to disappear, and traditional arbitrage opportunities have significantly narrowed. This means that even if there is a Christmas rally, its form may differ greatly from previous years.
Third, my survival strategy: seeking opportunities amidst harvesting.
In the face of such a market, I have adjusted my strategy:
1. Avoiding the trap of altcoin contracts
BN has launched over 200 new contract targets this year, and the frenzied and arbitrary pace of listing new coins has accelerated the deterioration of the altcoin market. I currently hardly touch newly listed altcoin contracts, especially those designed around 'contract priority'.
2. Focus on the 'compliance empowerment' track
Future alpha returns will no longer come from pure speculation and memes, but from 'compliance dividends'. I focus on RWA (real-world asset tokenization), institutional-grade financial infrastructure, and truly decentralized protocols protected by new legislation.
3. Strict position management
On the eve of the 23 billion options expiration, I adhere to the principle of testing with light positions. The market is full of uncertainty, so preserving ammunition is more important than blindly going all in.
4. Focus on Bitcoin and Ethereum
When even Vitalik is liquidating altcoins, we ordinary people have even less reason to stubbornly cling to those low-liquidity tokens. BTC, ETH, and mainstream stablecoins are the most stable ships in the current storm.
4. Outlook: Is dawn after the darkness?
Although the current market is bleak, the variables that could truly change the market structure are brewing.
The Federal Reserve may shift to an easing policy in the future, and a unified global regulatory baseline is emerging. These changes will bring new opportunities to the crypto market.
For truly patient investors, the other side of risk is opportunity. Analysis suggests that BTC whales are taking advantage of this downturn, decisively buying over 2500 Bitcoins.
The market never lacks opportunities; it only lacks the capital to survive until tomorrow. In this highly immature and constantly changing market, the only certainty is: continuous learning and constant adjustment are necessary for long-term survival.
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