Family! Who understands? The US stock market in December is supposed to be the time for 'Santa Claus to give red envelopes', but this year we got a 'reverse surprise'—this abnormal operation means that friends in the crypto circle must stay alert; it could be your last key window for bottom fishing/topping this year!
Let me share a nugget of knowledge for the new followers: seasoned investors know that traditionally, around American holidays (Thanksgiving, Christmas), the US stock market often has a 'holiday market' buff, with loose funds and institutional year-end accounting needs usually pushing the market slowly upward, and this trend generally continues until the year-end finish. Moreover, the overall environment in 2025 is looking good, with major indices previously making small strides to new highs; who would have thought there would be a stumble at the last step?
Here's the key point! As the "barometer" of the entire market—the S&P 500 index, it has surprisingly declined slightly against the trend this month, breaking the historical rule of being "strong in December." In my view, this is no coincidence; there are two core logics at play: first, some institutions are taking profits early at the end of the year, and the emotion of securing gains has overshadowed the holiday effect; second, the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data has already led the market to speculate on the possibility of "better than expected" results. After all, non-farm payroll data is directly related to the Federal Reserve's policy direction. Once the data is impressive, expectations for tightening liquidity will rise, which will put dual pressure on both the U.S. stock market and the cryptocurrency market.
Some brothers might ask: "What does the decline of U.S. stocks have to do with my cryptocurrency trading?" This is crucial! Currently, the global financial market is interconnected, and the U.S. stock market, as the "big brother" of risk assets, has its fluctuations directly affecting the overall risk appetite of the market. If the big brother is unstable, funds will panic and flee, and the cryptocurrency market, being a high-volatility type, will be the first to get hit; conversely, if the non-farm payroll data is worse than expected, and the Federal Reserve signals easing, funds will surge into high-elasticity assets, and the chips we hold may experience a rebound.
To be honest, after so many years in the industry, I've seen too many major market movements after the "failure of historical patterns." These past few days are definitely a critical volatility window, especially for mainstream cryptocurrencies, which will likely fluctuate with the winds of non-farm payroll data. However, there's no need to panic too much; in my personal judgment, this wave of volatility is a "short-term emotional release" rather than a "trend reversal," as the overall positive tone for 2025 hasn't changed. The key is to find the right rhythm and not be fooled by the market's false moves.
Finally, let me share something heartfelt: the more chaotic the market, the more opportunities there are, but it also makes it easier to step into pitfalls. In the next few days, I will be closely monitoring the market, interpreting the non-farm payroll data in real time, and sharing my exclusive volatility predictions and operational ideas in the fan group. If you haven't followed me yet, hurry up and follow me @链上标哥 , don't get lost!
