Data does not lie, but the story behind the data needs to be interpreted correctly.
"In the past month, Bitcoin has seen its price indicators stagnate, ending about two and a half years of continuous growth." The latest data briefing from CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju reveals this phenomenon. As a seasoned crypto analyst, I believe this is not just a simple data change, but a key signal of market momentum shifting.
When I deeply analyze on-chain data, I find that the current market is being pulled by two opposing forces: on one side, large-scale profit-taking by long-term holders, and on the other side, a noticeable slowdown in new capital inflows. This tug-of-war has led Bitcoin into a temporary state of equilibrium.
01 The Truth Behind Weakening Market Momentum
On-chain data is the pulse of the Bitcoin market. The stagnation of the realized price reflects the fact that the speed of new funds entering the market has not kept up with the circulation speed of Bitcoin.
This change did not come out of nowhere. Data shows that the average cost basis for Bitcoin wallets is around $55,900, meaning that most holders are still in profit, with an average gain of about 93%. Normally, this is a sign of a healthy market, but the issue is that the price isn't rising due to weak demand, but rather excessive selling pressure.
More concerning is the significant decrease in the number of Bitcoins flowing from spot exchanges to futures exchanges. This indicates that large holders are no longer as actively using Bitcoin as collateral to open new long positions. The market lacks this catalyst, and the upward momentum naturally weakens.
02 The Sell-off of Long-term Holders
Blockchain data reveals a harsh reality: those 'veteran' holders who have held for years are cashing out at the fastest rate in five years.
The K33 Research report points out that since the beginning of 2023, at least 1.6 million Bitcoins that have not moved for two years have been reduced, worth about $140 billion. In 2025 alone, nearly $300 billion worth of Bitcoin that has been dormant for over a year will re-enter circulation.
Such a scale of sell-off is rare in Bitcoin history, second only to the sell-off wave in 2017.
Unlike before, this sell-off is not driven by altcoin trading or protocol incentives, but rather by the deep liquidity brought about by US ETFs and institutional demand. Early holders are cashing out profits in the six-figure price range, significantly reducing ownership concentration.
03 Institutional Demand: The Biggest Variable in the Bull Market
What was once seen as the 'bull market engine' of institutional demand has now become the greatest uncertainty in the market.
In the past month, there has been a net outflow of about $2.8 billion from spot Bitcoin ETFs. This reversal is significant as a previously stable funding channel is drying up. Alex Saunders, the head of quantitative macro research at Citigroup, pointed out: 'New funds entering the market are cautious and do not feel a sense of urgency or rush to invest. Perhaps people have lost their enthusiasm.'
Even more concerning is that the stock price of MicroStrategy, a benchmark for Bitcoin allocation in corporate finance led by Michael Saylor, has dropped to a level almost equal to the value of its Bitcoin holdings. This indicates that investors are no longer willing to pay a premium for its high-confidence leverage model.
The slowdown in institutional demand is also reflected in the derivatives market. The average order size for BTC futures contracts has decreased from $6,000 at the beginning of the year to $2,000, indicating that the current market is mainly dominated by retail investors, while large funds are still observing.
04 Changes in Market Structure and Hope
Although the current situation seems pessimistic, the fundamental structure of the Bitcoin market is undergoing positive changes.
Bitcoin's volatility continues to stabilize, with its realized volatility having dropped to around 45%-50%, getting closer to that of large tech stocks. This reduction in volatility indicates that Bitcoin is maturing, which may increase its attractiveness in investment portfolios.
At the same time, the pattern of supply distribution has also changed. Long-term holders are distributing Bitcoin in a more sustained manner, rather than concentrating their sell-offs at the top of the cycle as in the past. This smoother supply turnover is gradually absorbed by ETF and institutional demand, creating a healthier market structure.
Glassnode's data indicates that the current cycle is highly similar to the markets from 2015-2018 and 2018-2022. In historical cycles, all-time highs are usually achieved within two to three months after similar phases. If history repeats itself, we may not have to wait too long.
05 My Analysis and Outlook
As an analyst who has experienced multiple market cycles, I believe the current consolidation is necessary and healthy.
Bitcoin needs to break through the direct resistance range between $92,000 and $95,000 to regain upward momentum. Once achieved, the next key obstacle is in the $100,000 to $108,000 range, and breaking this level will pave the way for a new high.
Future trends will depend on two key factors: first, whether ETF fund flows can recover, and second, whether the macro environment improves. If the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle arrives as expected, it may provide a new round of liquidity support for risk assets.
For ordinary investors, I recommend paying attention to the changes in the supply of long-term holders. When this indicator starts to rise again, it may indicate that the market has passed the worst selling pressure. Meanwhile, whether the realized profit and loss ratio (SOPR) of short-term holders can continue to break through 1 is also an important signal for market momentum recovery.
The next key battleground for Bitcoin is the $92,000-$95,000 range. If it can break through this area with volume, we will see market sentiment quickly improve. Conversely, if it remains blocked for a long time, it may further test the support at $83,000-$85,000.
Regardless of the short-term trend, the fundamentals of Bitcoin are actually strengthening. The network hash rate continues to set new highs (about 5.96 million ASIC miners online), and public mining operations are still expanding rather than scaling back. These signals indicate that the long-term health of Bitcoin remains robust.
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