Eight years ago, when I first entered the crypto world, I thought 'blockchain' was some profound technology. Now I've seen through it—this market is not about technology, it's about human nature. Behind those flickering red and green candlesticks are the tug-of-war between greed and fear. Today, let's talk about something real: why I think this market wave might be the last chance for ordinary people to make a comeback? And how to avoid being like that guy in 2013 who exchanged ten thousand bitcoins for a pizza and regretted it a decade later.
1. History repeats itself, but this time it really is different.
Some say the crypto cycle is 'up, then down, down, then up,' but this time the underlying logic has changed:
The policy bottom has arrived: sovereign nations are starting to legislate recognition, Wall Street institutions are entering with compliant ETFs. This is completely different from the past where wild funds traded blindly—once institutional money comes in, it is hard to withdraw in a short time.
Supply is getting tighter: Bitcoin halves every four years, coupled with the increasing number of permanently lost coins (estimated at 2 million), circulation will only become scarcer. If gold's market value allocates 10% to Bitcoin, the unit price could soar to $200,000, this calculation makes sense.
Don't get trapped by the 'bottom-fishing' mentality: I've seen too many people trying to buy at the lowest points, only to see altcoins drop 90% and still dare to buy, ultimately ending up at zero. Real opportunities lie in mainstream coins—when prices drop below mining costs, it's better to quietly hold some than to mess around with small coins.
2. Doubling returns relies on strategy, not on gambling.
If you just hold spot assets waiting for a rise, from the current price to $200,000 is only five or six times the space, improving life is fine, but wanting to relax? Not enough. Experts are all doing 'coin volume increment':
Grid trading reduces costs: In a bull market with large fluctuations, set a range to automatically buy low and sell high, especially suitable for mainstream coins during volatile periods.
Staking for stable returns: Don't let the coins you hold sit idle, throw them into a reliable staking pool, earning 5%-10% annually is better than a bank, the key is to calculate in coin terms, profit from the price increase, earn interest from the price drop.
Don't touch the contract! I only understood after being liquidated three times: leverage is a tool for the dealer to harvest. 99% of people lose money simply because they can't control themselves.
3. One million dollars for one Bitcoin? That's conservative!
Some laugh at my dreams, but the data speaks for itself:
Deflationary model: Bitcoin has a hard cap, each halving reduces miner selling pressure by half, but institutional ETFs are net inflowing hundreds of millions every day, supply and demand imbalance will only become more severe.
Incremental funds are on the way: pensions and sovereign funds have not yet entered the market on a large scale, wait until they allocate 1% of assets to Bitcoin, the price ceiling is unimaginable.
The narrative has upgraded: it used to be 'black market trading' and 'speculative tools', now it has become 'digital gold' and 'inflation-resistant assets', this story is recognized by global capital.
4. Surviving is a million times more important than making quick money.
Life-saving tips from eight years of pitfalls:
Three-part position strategy: 60% holding Bitcoin and Ethereum (core assets), 20% for swing trading (catching hot trends), 20% for stablecoin wealth management (opportunity ammunition). Don't go all in, and definitely don't borrow money to trade.
Be ruthless in taking profits: Sell a portion every time a new high is reached, and convert it into fiat currency for bank deposits. Money that is not withdrawn is just a digital game.
Cultivating internal skills in a bear market: Last year I cleared all altcoins and avoided three 50% drops. In a bear market, learn more about on-chain data and project code, so you can identify real opportunities in the next bull market.
Lastly, a heartfelt statement: The cruelest part of this industry is not the volatility, but that most people clearly see opportunities yet miss them due to emotional loss of control. Monitoring the market every day is not as good as reviewing weekly; chasing highs and cutting losses is not as good as waiting patiently. If this wave of the market bets right, ten years from now, you might really be able to relax and smile.
Follow Xiang Ge to learn more first-hand information and precise points about the cryptocurrency world, become your navigator in the crypto space, learning is your greatest wealth!#加密市场观察 #巨鲸动向 $ETH
