I am Sister Xu. This article does not discuss the Federal Reserve and K-lines, but looks at the real data of bar screens. The founder of CryptoQuant stated that Bitcoin's on-chain capital inflow has weakened, and market sentiment recovery may take months. This confirms my recent cautious concerns that the injection of new blood to drive the market has stalled, and the most solid incremental funds in the market are facing issues. I am highly alert and have decided to adopt a conservative strategy.
What is the on-chain alert warning about?
On-chain capital inflow has weakened, meaning new money entering the Bitcoin network to buy coins has decreased, resulting in insufficient purchasing power. The realized price stagnation is more critical; it resembles the average cost line of long-term holders, which has steadily risen over the past two and a half years and has now stagnated for a month, indicating significant issues with incremental funding.
Look at the situation in conjunction with information from the entire network.
This alert explains the recent market anomalies: good news does not lead to price increases due to reduced new capital entering the blockchain; prices are stagnant and do not drop significantly, entering a stage of competition for existing stocks, which is time-consuming, difficult to operate, and prone to losses; major institutions and whale addresses are not making large-scale purchases, and the market may shift from an increment-driven bull market to a stock competition-driven sideways market, lasting for several months; blindly chasing prices will lead to repeated losses.
Operation Guide for Retail Investors
In the face of capital exhaustion, technical analysis must give way:
Position Heavy: Reduce positions, cash out, and decisively sell part of the position during rebounds. Moderate Position: Set stop-losses, protect the principal, with BTC at $83,000 and ETH at $2,800 as the last line of defense; exit and observe if these levels are breached. Empty or Light Position: Hold cash tightly, wait patiently for on-chain capital inflow to improve or prices to reach a golden opportunity. Pay attention to opportunities below $80,000 for BTC and below $2,700 for ETH. Iron Rule: Stop high-leverage contracts, stay away from altcoins.
Summary and Action Plan
CryptoQuant data is a critical alert for the market, indicating a need for recovery. I plan to maintain an extremely low core position and set stop-losses, keeping over 70% cash, reducing positions during rebounds or bottom-fishing during sharp declines, and observing in between. Surviving in the crypto space relies on discipline; when new money is not coming in, one must preserve stamina. Bull markets are born in pessimism; protecting the principal is already a win.
I closely monitor a mixed indicator that combines net outflows from exchanges with the behavior of long-term holders; it has issued signals before critical bottoms. If you want to know how to capture them, scan the QR code below to join the chat room, where signals will be interpreted at the first moment they appear.
