I am Sister Xu. Let’s get straight to the point: the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in January next year has plummeted from 31% to 19.9%, with over 80% of funds believing there will be no rate cut next month. This data is not a guess, but the result of Wall Street betting real money on interest rate futures contracts, representing the true attitude of large funds.
Liquidity expectations have completely reversed: the market previously speculated on interest rate cuts in spring next year, but this core logic has now collapsed. The high interest rate environment may last longer, with rising global funding costs putting high-risk assets like Bitcoin at the forefront.
The structure of the cryptocurrency market is inherently fragile: there has been a continuous net outflow of funds from Bitcoin ETFs recently, and buying support is insufficient. Once the expectations for interest rate cuts are dashed, high-leverage long positions may trigger a chain reaction of liquidations, leading to a vicious cycle of declines—liquidation—selling.
The macro environment is worsening: Federal Reserve officials have recently frequently adopted hawkish stances, emphasizing that they are not in a hurry to cut interest rates, while U.S. economic data is relatively strong, giving the Fed the confidence to delay easing.
My judgment:
In the short term, the biggest catalyst for the rise in the crypto space has failed. The market will enter a liquidity vacuum, and caution is needed as mainstream coins test key support downwards. Once broken, panic selling pressure may intensify.
Retail investors must act immediately:
Heavy holders: Take advantage of the rebound (if BTC rebounds above 89,000) and decisively reduce holdings, prioritizing capital preservation.
Light holders/short holders: Maintain patience; it is not yet the time to bottom. Pay attention to whether BTC can stabilize around $85,000.
Iron law: Avoid high leverage and stay away from altcoins! Current volatility is amplified, and a single spike could wipe out positions.
My plan:
Holdings have fallen below 20%, with cash accounting for over 80%. Now is not the time to chase returns, but rather to see who can survive the winter. The market is not lacking in opportunities; what is lacking is the cash to survive until the next opportunity.
(This analysis is based on publicly available data and on-chain indicators and does not constitute investment advice. For real-time strategy adjustments, please follow subsequent developments.)
(Current key monitoring signal)
On-chain data shows that recently Bitcoin miners' holdings are continuously flowing to exchanges, suggesting that selling pressure may increase. At the same time, the growth rate of stablecoin market capitalization has stagnated, and the willingness of new funds to enter is low. If these two signals continue to deteriorate, the market may face further downside risks.
The above is public analysis, while my specific spot layout points, on-chain alert list, and emergency plan are only synchronized in the chat room. If you don't want to miss key points or step on landmines, it's recommended to scan the code below to find Sister Xu in the chat room.
