Friends, I am Bai Yue. Just now, the market erupted with a major piece of news: Federal Reserve Governor Milan directly stated that the inflation data is inflated, and the policy needs to lean towards 'dovish'; if not adjusted, there may be an economic recession, and ultimately, interest rates will have to be cut! As soon as this news came out, the market's direction became subtly different.
News: The Federal Reserve is 'dovish', is capital going to move?
In simple terms, this big shot from the Federal Reserve believes that the recent inflation data has been distorted due to the government shutdown and is not actually that high. This means the urgency for interest rate hikes has decreased, and there may even be cuts in the future. This is a significant signal for global markets; if the dollar policy shifts towards easing, some hot money may flow out of traditional assets in search of higher returns.
Bai Yue believes that the cryptocurrency market has always been sensitive to the flow of funds. If this trend continues, it may bring additional volatility and potential support to mainstream coins like BTC. But note, this is an 'expectation,' not an immediate directive, and the market will first digest the emotions.
Technical aspect: The 4-hour chart shows a critical battle; be cautious of a pullback at high levels.
Looking at the technology again, Bai Yue is sharing this 4-hour chart with everyone. The current BTC price is hovering around 88210 USD, with several key positions to keep an eye on:
Heavy pressure above: The 90500-91500 area is a strong resistance zone for recent rebounds, and without volume, it is difficult to break through.
Currently key position: 89000 is a psychological barrier, and if it doesn't hold, it may easily retrace.
Lower support reference: 88600 is the first line of defense, with strong support around 85000.
Bai Yue believes that the yellow and white dual lines are still above the 0 axis, indicating that the trend has not completely deteriorated. However, the price has fallen from the high point, and during some periods, the volume increased but failed to break through, indicating that someone is taking profits at high levels. Overall, the market appears hesitant near the pressure zone, consistent with the cautious view of 'not chasing at high levels.'
Operational advice: What should retail investors do? Focus on these three points!
Don't chase highs and don't short: The current position is sensitive, observe more and act less, and don’t rush to take sides.
Focus on the key position: If it breaks through 90500 with volume and holds, short-term sentiment may turn bullish; if it falls below 88600 and holds, the depth of the retracement may increase. Before that, volatility is the main theme.
Hook into the rhythm, wait for clear signals, and risk control is always the top priority. For those with heavy positions, consider reducing some holdings on rebounds, and for those with light positions, patiently wait for a clear direction before taking action.
Bai Yue's personal opinion: The wind is strong and the waves are high; stability is key.
Combining news and technical aspects, my view is very clear: short-term volatility is likely to increase, but the direction is not yet fully clear. The dovish signals from the Federal Reserve are potentially favorable in the medium to long term, but the technicals show that BTC is facing resistance at a key level and has a demand for a pullback. Pursuing high prices now risks being trapped, and blindly shorting could also be caught off guard by sudden news spikes. The market has entered a sensitive phase of 'news-driven + technical game.'
BTC needs a new catalyst to choose a direction in front of the key technical level. The best strategy for retail investors now is to maintain a calm mindset, control their actions, and wait for the market to establish a clear trajectory on its own. Don't forget to follow Bai Yue, understand the market together, and respond calmly!
There are always opportunities in the market; the key is to operate calmly. Bai Yue will continue to help everyone keep an eye on on-chain dynamics and move forward steadily! Follow Bai Yue to participate in every offensive of the Bai Yue villagers! Bai Yue will announce the specific entry times and real-time news daily in the village!
