According to ChainCatcher news and Matrixport analyst Markus Thielen, gold prices have repeatedly reached new highs, achieving nearly 80% excess returns compared to Bitcoin over the past year, with significant performance at certain stages.
In this round of market conditions, excess returns are more concentrated in traditional hedging assets like gold, reflecting a decline in interest rates, lower inflation, and rising market expectations for the Federal Reserve to shift to a more dovish stance in 2026.
Although BlackRock has continuously strengthened the narrative of Bitcoin as 'digital gold' in recent years, central banks around the world still primarily allocate their reserve assets to gold. Due to its high volatility, exposure, and certain political sensitivities, Bitcoin is currently difficult to be incorporated into official reserve assets on a large scale.
In the medium to long term, the direction of U.S. policy remains the most critical uncertain factor: The Trump administration could theoretically choose to reevaluate the price of gold, sell off some reserves, or marginally diversify some reserves into Bitcoin.
