According to technical analysis and based on liquidity structure and market sentiment, $BTC has entered a bear market since September, and up to now, there have been no strong factors to change that state.
From September onwards, I think it will take at least 12-14 months for the market to truly bottom out (and that is our current phase). You will see the market moving sideways and fluctuating quite uncomfortably.
Price target $BTC if this cycle is to end is likely to fall around the $60k range.
There is a fairly common mistake that I want to warn you about, which is that people always expect the market to react quickly, going straight to the target, while the nature of the market requires time to form liquidity.
Price cannot go down deeply if there are not enough buy orders below to absorb selling pressure. Therefore, the longer the sideways time lasts, the larger the correction will be later. We should be a little patient.
In the medium term, BTC can still have a bounce back to around $97k-$107k in the coming weeks, and I hope this scenario will be true so that everyone can have a warm and prosperous Tet holiday. As for the possibility of a sharp drop immediately before February or March 2026, I see it as quite low. Instead, the market is likely to go sideways for a long time, with the main goal of creating more liquidity below before entering the final downward phase.
I have maintained this perspective since November, when Bitcoin began to enter a prolonged sideways phase. The purpose of this sideways move is not to increase but to wear down sentiment, exhaust the impatient, and create conditions for the final distribution phase to occur effectively.
You should prepare for the market sentiment in the coming time to be quite slow and uncomfortable. It is similar to what has happened in the last 6 months. If this scenario repeats for another 12 months, the important question is no longer "where will the price go," but: how many people will still have enough patience and mentality to buy at the actual bottom? And how many will only return to the market when the price has exceeded ATH, missing the entire previous accumulation cycle?
What is the macro view?
From a macro perspective, the market is currently facing a severe liquidity crisis. Indicators related to recession and liquidity are at levels equivalent to the 2008 period (or even worse than then) and the Credit Suisse crisis.
The banking system is still largely supported by the Fed's Standing Repo Facility, where each bank can borrow short-term up to $240 billion each day, as long as they have safe collateral like U.S. government bonds.
The important thing to understand is that this mechanism is not about printing unlimited money. The borrowed funds must be repaid after 1–2 days with interest; they cannot be accumulated or held for the long term. The role of the Fed here is to prevent a sudden liquidity freeze, not to address the root causes of debt and inflation.
From what I see, the FED has currently lost in the battle against inflation and public debt. Debt pressure continues to increase, and the likelihood of a major crisis occurring in 2026 is becoming clearer.
When that crisis occurs, a large-scale money pump scenario like in 2020 is very likely to repeat at the end of 2026. At that time, risky assets, real estate, gold, silver, and even Bitcoin may all rise sharply, while the value of fiat currency continues to weaken.
