ME News report, December 23 (UTC+8), QCP released its daily market observation stating that as the Christmas holiday approaches, liquidity in the cryptocurrency market has noticeably weakened. Although gold prices have reached historic highs, Bitcoin remains in a range-bound fluctuation. Data shows that the open interest of BTC perpetual contracts on major exchanges decreased by about 3 billion USD overnight, while the open interest of ETH perpetual contracts dropped by about 2 billion USD, indicating that the market is actively deleveraging rather than re-adding positions. The liquidity contraction poses a higher risk of two-way squeeze in the market during the holiday period. Historically, Bitcoin tends to experience price fluctuations of 5%-7% during the Christmas week, often related to the concentrated expiration of year-end options. This Friday will see a large-scale expiration, with about 300,000 BTC options contracts (approximately 23.7 billion USD) and 446,000 IBIT options expiring, among which over 50% of the open contracts on Deribit are set to expire on Boxing Day, primarily at strike prices of 100,000 USD and 85,000 USD, with the maximum pain point around 95,000 USD. Recent data shows that the open interest of 85,000 USD put options has decreased, while the positions in 100,000 USD call options remain relatively stable, reflecting that the market still holds limited optimistic expectations for the 'Christmas market.' Meanwhile, the risk reversal indicator shows that market sentiment has eased compared to the previous 30 days, but overall it still leans slightly bearish. Analysts believe that apart from the capital flow from options, year-end tax loss operations may also amplify short-term volatility in a low liquidity environment. However, based on historical experience, holiday markets often revert to the mean after liquidity returns in January. In the absence of a clear directional breakout, the cryptocurrency market may continue to maintain a fluctuating pattern in the short term. (Source: ME)
