šÆšµ Japan's Economic Experiment: Is it Reaching a Boiling Point? š”ļø With a debt-to-GDP ratio around 260%, the highest in the developed world, Japan's financial strategy is under global scrutiny.
If Japan's 10-year bond yield were allowed to fluctuate naturally, interest expenses would surge. This would quickly overwhelm tax revenues and destabilize the nation's fiscal framework.
To counteract this, the Bank of Japan implemented Yield Curve Control (YCC), capping the 10-year yield. This allows the government to refinance vast debt at minimal real cost, making the debt functionally perpetual. This strategy relies on inflation to slowly erode the debt's real value, effectively managing a soft default scenario rather than an immediate crisis. š
However, this 'soft default' mechanism is now facing immense market pressure. With the 10-year bond yield recently hitting 30-year highs, the market is compelling Japan to reassess its long-standing policy. The real test for YCC is now underway. š¹
