I am Hongcai, just saw a message that made me sit up straight. The founder of AAVE spent 5.15 million dollars to buy the dip, and now he is still at a loss of 2.29 million!
Even the founder is catching falling knives. Should we players follow the rush, or should we run away quickly?
News aspect
Founder Stani bought 32,000 AAVE with 1,699 ETH at an average price of 157 dollars. Now he holds a total of 84,000 AAVE, worth 12.6 million dollars. But he is currently at a loss.
This shows that even if he is the founder, he might have bought at a halfway point. Is this confidence in protecting the market, or passive averaging down? The answer will determine the life or death direction of AAVE going forward.
Technical aspects
4-hour view, a complete mess:
The price is stuck around 152, the MACD has formed a death cross and is pointing downwards, with both the yellow and white lines falling below the zero axis, which is a strong bearish signal.
The first resistance level is 195, and the second is 234, which is a strong resistance zone. The third support level is 118, and the fourth is 74, which is the last line of defense.
Both RSI and MFI are in the oversold zone, indicating that the decline has been somewhat excessive. However, being oversold does not mean that an upward or downward trend is imminent; the oversold condition can become even more oversold.
Key point: If 118 fails to hold, the downside potential may open up directly.
My opinion
I think AAVE will most likely continue to decline tonight.
While the founder's purchase provided psychological support, the market simply didn't buy it.
A slight rebound to around 160-170 was a trap for bulls, before the price continued to fall towards 118 to test support.
The price broke through 152 with a significant increase in volume, accelerating its decline. The first target is 118, and the second target is 74.
Remember, in a downtrend, all positive news can be used to unload shares, especially when even the founders are trapped.
What do players do?
If you don't have a position, don't rush: be patient and wait for a bottoming signal around 118 before considering a small long position, or wait for the rebound to the 170-195 range and then short.
Those with positions should remain clear-headed: if the losses are not too deep, reduce positions when the price rebounds to above 160; if the losses are deep, place buy orders in batches at 118 and 74 to average down the cost.
The safest approach is to only trade on the right side of the chart, waiting for the 4-hour candlestick to close above 170 again and for the MACD golden cross to be confirmed before going long; otherwise, it's better to miss the opportunity.
Many people lose a lot of money because they get carried away when they see a founder buying shares. In my daily analysis, I'll remind you which are just smoke and mirrors. Follow me, and you won't be fooled by superficial news.
The cruelest truth in the crypto world is: even with insider information, you can still lose to the trend. Are you following the trend now, or are you chasing your emotions? Follow Hongcai; I not only analyze news for you, but also teach you to identify the traps behind the news.
Understanding certain information early can save you from making mistakes. Tonight, let's see if AAVE holds above 118 or plunges into the abyss. Remember, the market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is the patience to protect your capital. Participate in every Hongcai attack! Hongcai will announce specific entry times and real-time news daily in the chat room!#加密市场观察 $AAVE
