Amid market differentiation, unexpected investment logic is hidden.

As an analyst who has been in the crypto industry for many years, I have to admit that the financial market of 2025 surprises me yet does not surprise me. The surprise is how rapidly gold and silver have risen, and the lack of surprise is that Bitcoin has once again proven its unique character of never playing by the rules.

When gold broke through $4400 and silver soared to a historic high of $69, I touched the bit of Bitcoin in my pocket and looked out the window, hmm, the world is still the same world, just the performances of assets are different.

I. The Madness of Gold and Silver in 2025: It's Not Just About Hedging

Gold has risen 67% this year, and silver has skyrocketed 138%. This is not just simple market volatility, but a profound revolution in asset pricing logic.

Many analysts attribute all of this to geopolitical risks and safe-haven sentiment, but I believe that only scratches the surface. Gold is becoming a 'thermometer of monetary credit', with its rising core driving force coming from the 'collapse of sovereign trust' and 'acceleration of de-dollarization'.

Imagine this: U.S. Treasury interest payments hitting a record of over $1 trillion, with central banks no longer buying gold for 'reserve diversification', but rather for 'survival'. This buying pressure is rigid and cost-agnostic; they directly repatriate gold bars, leading to extreme depletion of market liquidity.

Silver is the 'high β version' of gold. It follows gold's financial pricing and enjoys a premium from industrial prosperity. AI data centers, electrification, photovoltaics, etc., are 'consuming silver', while supply elasticity is limited, and 2025 marks the fifth consecutive year of structural gaps.

The silver market is much smaller than gold, with the total value of London silver inventories at about $50 billion, while gold is as high as approximately $1.2 trillion. The same influx of funds will lead to more violent price fluctuations.

II. Why Bitcoin is Lagging: Liquidity Dilemma and Misjudgment of Asset Attributes

While precious metals are surging, Bitcoin struggles in the $86,000-$89,000 range, down nearly 30% from its peak in early October. This performance breaks many investors' traditional belief that Bitcoin is 'digital gold'.

The real crux lies in liquidity. Since the beginning of 2023, Bitcoin price changes have a lagged correlation of about 12 weeks with the global M2 money supply, but this pattern was broken after mid-July 2025. The U.S. Treasury's issuance of approximately $500 billion in Treasury bonds to replenish the TGA account has led to a reduction in available market funds, directly impacting liquidity-sensitive assets like Bitcoin.

Bitcoin's asset attributes are closer to high-growth tech stocks rather than safe-haven assets. In a high-interest-rate environment, institutional funds will unhesitatingly withdraw from the Bitcoin market. The 'Bitcoin-Gold Ratio', which measures how many ounces of gold one unit of Bitcoin can buy, plummeted from about 40 ounces at the beginning of 2025 to about 20 ounces by the end of the year, a drop of 50%.

On-chain data also confirms the structural changes in Bitcoin. Coinbase has seen a net outflow of 70,000 BTC in the last 30 days, with long-term holders controlling 71% of the circulating supply. This 'hoarding' trend, while providing price support, has also led to a depletion of exchange liquidity, which is only 12.7% of circulating supply, the lowest level since 2018.

III. Historical Patterns Suggest: The catch-up of Bitcoin is just a matter of time

Although Bitcoin is currently performing weakly, historical data indicates that this differentiation may lay the groundwork for the upcoming rotation.

Looking back at the period after gold reached its peak in 2020, Bitcoin took more than a year to launch a 300% increase; during the 67% rise of gold from 2022 to 2024, Bitcoin also realized a 400% rebound. The rise of gold is often a pre-signal of global liquidity easing. Once the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates and market risk appetite warms up, Bitcoin is expected to replicate historical patterns.

Currently, Bitcoin's price is in the 'consolidation corridor' of $104,000-$114,000. If it breaks through the resistance level of $114,300, it may initiate a new round of increases. The behavior of long-term holders is key to market stability—when the proportion of BTC held for over a year rises from 58% in 2024 to 67% in 2025, the market's risk resistance capacity significantly strengthens.

The process of institutionalization is also accelerating. Since 2025, listed companies have averaged an increase of 32,000 BTC per month, extracting over 425,000 BTC from exchanges. This corporate Bitcoin strategy, while leading to a contraction in exchange liquidity, also means that more Bitcoin is being locked up for the long term.

IV. Investment Strategy: How to Position in this Differentiated Market

In the face of current market differentiation, I believe the following strategies can be considered:

For short-term investors, pay attention to gold-silver ratio arbitrage opportunities. Based on current quotes, the gold-silver ratio is roughly in the range of 63-67, which means if gold continues to rise, silver still has room to catch up. Historical data shows that when a gold bull market is established, silver often experiences a 'catch-up' or even 'overshoot'.

For medium to long-term investors, the current price consolidation of Bitcoin may be a good opportunity to gradually build positions. Once a clear signal of interest rate cuts appears, global liquidity will turn loose again, and Bitcoin is likely to迎来下一轮牛市的真正起点.

For risk-averse investors, the supercycle of gold will continue. Goldman Sachs predicts that gold could break through $4,900 per ounce next year, while silver, driven by supply-demand gaps, may challenge the $75-80 range.

V. Personal Opinion: Bitcoin is far from out; it just needs a little patience

As a long-term observer of cryptocurrencies, I remain confident in the future of Bitcoin. The current relative weakness feels more like a necessary stress test, eliminating the weak and consolidating the strong.

Market differentiation reveals the essence of different asset classes: gold is a stable present, while Bitcoin is a promising future. Truly smart money will not choose just one, but will reasonably allocate both to achieve the dual goal of risk hedging and opportunity capture.

When the market is chasing gold and silver, I am quietly increasing my Bitcoin holdings. Not because I know it will rise tomorrow, but because I understand the cyclical logic behind this market differentiation, and the explosive power Bitcoin will show when liquidity tides come again.

In this crazy market, staying calm is more important than blindly chasing trends. Like and follow me@加密崎哥 #比特币与黄金战争 #美联储回购协议计划 #比特币流动性