Understanding trends, controlling impulses, managing positions — this is my survival strategy
I still remember this time last year, I only had 2000 dollars left in my account, and I felt like the market was about to knock me down. At that time, seeing all the posts about 'explosions' and 'hundredfold' gains in my social circle was truly disheartening.
But today, my account balance is 116000 dollars. It's not due to any mysterious code, nor is it because of any big player guiding me; it's simply from three bowls of 'soup' that I made myself. In this bloody PvP game, staying alive is more important than anything else.
The first bowl of soup: Trends are your friend, not your enemy
I used to be a master of 'contrarian indicators.' When the market rose, I thought it would fall; when the market fell, I thought it would rebound. The results were predictable, and I ended up with a lot of losses.
The change came from a late-night viewing of the market. At that time, Bitcoin plummeted 10% in just a few hours, and I instinctively wanted to buy the dip. But just as my finger was about to click 'buy', I stopped and asked myself, 'Whose friend is the trend?'
The answer is obvious — trends are friends of those who do not resist them.
As the Swiss speculation law states, the market always oscillates between excessive optimism and excessive pessimism. Truly smart people do not predict storms but ensure the ark can set sail at any time. I no longer try to be smarter than the market, but obediently follow the trend.
Now, as long as I see the price steadily above the 60-day moving average, I default to a bullish market and only look for opportunities to go long; conversely, if the price is pressed down by the moving averages, I obediently hold back and wait for opportunities. This tactic is so simple that it makes people skeptical, but it has indeed saved me a lot of money.
The second bowl of soup: Taking profits is not cowardice, but wisdom.
'The classic operation of retail investors is to rush to run after making 7%, but stubbornly hold on after losing 80%.' This phrase describes my past reality.
The change comes from my re-understanding of 'risk.' I used to think that risk was external, that the market was deliberately against me. Later, I realized the greatest risk actually comes from within myself, from that greed of 'just wait a bit longer, it might still rise.'
I have now developed a habit: before every purchase, I think about when to sell.
It's not based on feeling, but on clear rules. For example, I refer to the ATR (Average True Range) indicator to tie stop losses and profits to market volatility. When the market is volatile, I give prices more room to move; when the market is calm, I tighten the ranges for taking profits and stop losses.
The most useful tactic is 'trailing stop loss.' When the price moves in the direction I expect, I slowly raise the stop-loss line, protecting profits while allowing the trend to continue developing. It's like eating at a buffet; when I'm 80% full, I stop and save room for the next opportunity.
Last week, a friend laughed at me for being too conservative, saying I sold a skyrocketing token too early. As a result, a few days later, that token dropped back to its starting point, while I had already taken profits to enjoy some milk tea. In this market, living long is the real skill.
The third bowl of soup: Position management is your bulletproof vest.
I used to be a 'all-in enthusiast,' always thinking that once I saw an opportunity, I had to go all out. The result was that my account balance was as thrilling as a rollercoaster.
The change came from an experience of being liquidated. At that time, I confidently heavily invested in a token that 'would definitely rise,' but it not only didn't rise, it halved. At that moment, I realized that no analysis is effective in the face of a heavy position without a stop loss.
Now I strictly follow the '30-70' principle: 70% of my position is in core assets (BTC/ETH), and 30% is for short-term satellite coins.
Core assets are my 'ballast,' unless the trend completely reverses, I won't easily touch them. Satellite funds are where I seek excess returns, but I won't invest too much in each coin, strictly diversifying risks.
More importantly, I set an ironclad rule for myself: a single trade's loss cannot exceed 2% of my total capital. This means that if I want to buy a small coin with high volatility, I must reduce the position size to give it more room to move.
This way, even if I judge wrongly, it won't be a significant blow. It's like playing a game; core equipment keeps you alive, while minor equipment focuses on cost-effectiveness. Last week, SOL suddenly surged, and my 30% satellite position just happened to profit; this week, DOGE plummeted, and my 70% core position remained stable.
Survive first, then make money.
The most counterintuitive aspect of the crypto market is not how difficult technical analysis is, but how important emotional management is. I have seen too many friends turn into Wall Street wolves when they are profitable and instantly become a sob story when they incur losses.
My hard-earned lesson is: don’t treat trading as gambling, and definitely don’t position yourself as a savior. The market always has opportunities, but the premise is that you need to be in the game.
The true wealth code is never in the short-term ups and downs, but in the steadfastness of the 'unchanging.' What I understand by 'unchanging' are those most basic principles: trends are your friends, taking profits is the wisdom of survival, and position management is the guarantee of staying alive.
If you are also struggling in this market, I want to share three sentences with you:
Better to miss ten waves of market movements than to bet on a contrarian operation.
Better to conservatively secure profits than to greedily chase the last bit of soup.
Remember, you are here to survive in the market for the long term, not to prove how smart you are.
In this world interwoven with code and desire, may we all become 'sober gamblers,' carving our own wealth totem at the boundary of reason and madness.
Who says retail investors can't evolve into market makers? See you in the next bull market! Follow Xiang Ge to learn more about first-hand information and precise points in the crypto world, becoming your guide in the crypto space; learning is your greatest wealth!#ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察 $ETH
