#DanielNadem

U.S. debt crossing $38 trillion is less about the headline number and more about the math behind it. Interest costs are compounding into a structural constraint, forcing policy toward easier financial conditions. With annual servicing projected near $1.4 trillion, rate cuts become a fiscal release valve rather than a growth tool. Each percentage point matters because it materially reshapes budget pressure. The risk is not immediate default, but credibility erosion if monetary policy appears politically driven. Markets sense this tension early. When debt, rates, and liquidity collide, volatility arrives before consensus, and macro positioning shifts before price confirms it.