Trump's remark 'I think there is another potential Federal Reserve chair here' was heard loud and clear on Wall Street. This meticulously crafted political drama is rewriting the trajectory of global liquidity.
During a recent event at the White House, Trump casually pointed to Kevin Hassett while introducing him, uttering the market-exploding phrase. This 'unintentional' statement caused Hassett's election probability in the prediction market to jump from 66% to 85%.
During the same day's cabinet meeting, Trump also revealed that 'we have narrowed down the candidates from 10 to 1', which almost implies that Hassett has secured the nomination. The Federal Reserve's 'tap' is about to be replaced by someone who understands the king himself.
01 Washington's House of Cards: A Well-Planned Federal Reserve "Coup"
The discord between Trump and Powell has long been an open secret. In November, Trump harshly criticized, "I want to fire his ass; he is an idiot." Now, with Powell still in office, Trump has already begun to lay the groundwork for a "major overhaul" of the Federal Reserve.
It is no coincidence that Kevin Hassett, the Director of the White House National Economic Council, has suddenly become the focus of the market. According to data from prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, the probability of Hassett's election has skyrocketed to over 76%, far exceeding other candidates.
The Trump administration has been paving the way to take control of monetary policy. By firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and placing loyalists on the Federal Reserve Board, the Trump team is attempting to achieve substantial control over monetary policy before the first half of 2026.
This series of actions has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve. Some observers warn that if the Federal Reserve becomes another branch of the government, it may be beneficial to the market in the short term, but it could have catastrophic consequences in the long term.
02 Who is Hassett? Why Should the Crypto Market Cheer?
Kevin Hassett is not an ordinary economist. He holds Coinbase shares valued between $1 million and $5 million, has worked in Coinbase's Digital Asset Working Group, and is a well-known "proponent of interest rate cuts."
In stark contrast to the tightening policies of current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, Hassett has publicly criticized current interest rates as "too high" and advocated for more aggressive rate cuts to stimulate economic growth. This stance is undoubtedly a significant boon for cryptocurrencies that rely on a low interest rate environment.
Hassett's background makes him the most crypto-friendly candidate for Federal Reserve Chairman. He not only holds a large number of shares in Coinbase but also served on Coinbase's Academic and Regulatory Advisory Council and participated in the White House Digital Asset Working Group.
Zach Pandl, the research director of the digital asset investment platform Grayscale, stated: "From a marginal effect perspective, Hassett should be seen as good news for cryptocurrencies." Caitlin Long, founder of Custodia Bank, bluntly said that if Hassett takes office, those within the Federal Reserve who are against cryptocurrencies will "eventually be ousted."
03 A Major Shift in Monetary Policy: How Will Global Liquidity Tides Change?
As the highest decision-maker in U.S. monetary policy, the Federal Reserve Chairman's attitude directly determines the market's cost of funds and liquidity. Hassett recently stated that if he were to serve as Federal Reserve Chairman, he would "immediately cut interest rates" because "data shows we should do so."
Market expectations for interest rate cuts have been warming. According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has risen to 84.9%. If Hassett takes office, this process may further accelerate.
A low interest rate environment is generally favorable for risk assets like Bitcoin. When interest rates decrease, the dollar is more likely to depreciate, while Bitcoin's appeal as an anti-inflation asset increases. At the same time, low interest rates encourage investors to seek higher-yield asset allocations, bringing new buying pressure to cryptocurrencies.
Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, pointed out that the next Federal Reserve Chairman could be "the biggest catalyst for the bull market in Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency sector." He predicts that if Trump appoints an "extremely dovish" chairman, the price of Bitcoin could reach $200,000.
04 Not Just Rate Cuts: The Era of Financial Deep Integration Led by the Federal Reserve
The influence of the Federal Reserve goes far beyond interest rate decisions. According to the (GENIUS Act) promoted in 2025, the Federal Reserve will play a core role in the regulatory framework for stablecoins, directly overseeing stablecoin issuers.
The Federal Reserve has also determined the level of openness of the banking system to the cryptocurrency industry. Whether banks can provide services to crypto companies and participate in stablecoin operations depends on the Federal Reserve's regulatory attitude. This directly affects key services such as cryptocurrency custody, loans secured by cryptocurrencies, and payment channel access.
Current Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller (another candidate) has emphasized that "stablecoins have the potential to maintain and expand the international role of the dollar." This view represents a significant shift in the Federal Reserve's attitude toward crypto assets.
As more payment giants like Klarna prepare to launch stablecoins for global transactions, the total market value of stablecoins may reach a target range of $1.2 trillion by 2026, and the Federal Reserve's regulatory attitude will determine whether these innovations can develop smoothly.
05 A New Script for the Crypto Market: How to Position for the Next Six Months?
In the face of this significant change, crypto investors need a new investment framework. Bitcoin's recent price volatility has intensified, dropping from an annual high of $126,000 to the $80,000 threshold, then rebounding to around $91,000, reflecting the market's repricing of policy expectations.
Technical indicators show that Bitcoin is currently at a critical technical node. The daily chart shows that the price is being suppressed by the middle track at $87,500 while supported by the lower track at $85,000. If it can break through the resistance at $87,500, it may initiate a new round of upward momentum.
The U.S. CPI data and the European Central Bank's interest rate decision to be released tonight may become key to breaking the market equilibrium. If the CPI data is lower than expected, it will strengthen the logic of "the necessity of the Federal Reserve to cut rates," providing momentum for Bitcoin to return to the $90,000 threshold.
For investors, the current market should maintain a "light position and wait-and-see" strategy, focusing on breakthroughs in the Bitcoin range of $85,000-$87,500, and waiting for macro data to provide clear direction before making decisions.
The potential risks brought by quantum computing, the Ethereum Fusaka hard fork, and the Solana Alpenglow upgrade will also impact the crypto market in 2026. But most importantly, the liquidity potentially released by a shift in Federal Reserve policy could amount to trillions of dollars.
In the future, a new collaborative model is likely to emerge: the private sector leads innovation, and the government is responsible for setting rules. Regardless of who ultimately takes office, the real boon lies not in the "friendly label," but in whether the institutional path can be implemented.
Trump's cards have already been played; now the only question is: Are you ready?
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