'Why does it always go up when I sell and down when I buy?'
Is this your third time slamming the table this week?
I used to believe in 'trial and error', thinking that after a few attempts I could develop intuition. What happened? After losing 30% of my principal, I realized I wasn't 'trial and erroring', but rather being 'repeatedly educated by the market'.
Later I understood: trading is not about gambling on probabilities, but about using rules to crush emotions. Today, let’s speak some truth and teach you how to survive in the crypto market using three tools - a moving average, a candlestick, and a line.
1. Throw away 90% of your indicators; you are trading, not conducting research.
The chart is filled with MACD, KDJ, Bollinger Bands... it looks professional, but in reality, it’s full of noise. Opportunities everywhere = no opportunities.
My chart is as clean as a minimalist living room:
EMA 30: The only direction gauge. Only consider long positions above the line, only consider short positions below;
Candlestick patterns: Only recognize engulfing and Pin bars (others say "the immortal points the way" or "the ominous cloud covers the top", I directly look for reversal signals);
Previous highs and lows: Draw a line with a pen, support and resistance are clear at a glance.
Don't try to catch the bottom or the top! The trend is your friend, but if you always try to fool your friend for money, you'll end up with no friends.
2. When the opportunity arises, execute like a robot
Knowing the direction isn’t enough; you need to know "when to pull the trigger". My four-step entry method:
Trend Filtering: Only allowed to go long when EMA30 is up;
Key levels for pullbacks: Price touches the moving average or previous highs/lows;
Candlestick signals: An engulfing or a long upper shadow appears, indicating a reversal;
Breakthrough entry: Enter outside the high/low of the reversal candlestick.
For example, yesterday BTC pulled back to the 30 moving average and formed a bullish engulfing, I directly followed with a long position. Don’t hesitate! The system gives you the signal, just do it. Profit and loss are probabilities, execution is discipline.
3. Is holding a position 100 times harder than entering? Lock in profits with rules
Feeling itchy to close positions when in profit? Fantasizing about holding on when in loss? This is human nature, but the rules go against human nature:
Stop loss: Set before entering, place it outside the key level (e.g., below the engulfing candlestick low);
Take profit: Fixed 1:1 risk-reward ratio, or move the stop loss to secure profits;
Position size: Each stop loss should not exceed 2% of capital, even if you get it wrong 5 times, you can still survive.
Revenge trading is the devil! Losing makes you want to "win it back", and in the end, your capital gets eaten away by the market.
4. Here’s an intraday strategy for spot trading (proven effective)
Asset: BTC/ETH (high liquidity cryptocurrencies)
Timeframe: 15-minute chart
Conditions for going long:
EMA30 is up;
Price pulls back to EMA30;
A bullish engulfing or a Pin bar appears;
Enter above the high point of the Pin bar.
Risk control: Set stop loss below the signal candlestick low, take profit = stop loss × 2, single trade risk ≤ 1% of capital.
Key: No more than 3 trades a day, if you get it wrong twice in a row, shut down the computer! The market is not lacking in opportunities, but in people who live to see tomorrow.
Last words are heart-wrenching
"Practicing a simple move ten thousand times is more useful than changing a hundred artifacts."
Money is scattered on the ground, but you have to be willing to bend down and pick it up a thousand times in the same position. Some find it boring, some find it slow, but in the end, only a few leave with money.
Follow Ake, to learn more first-hand information and cryptocurrency knowledge at precise points, to become your guide in the crypto world; learning is your greatest wealth!#加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析 $ETH
