Price fluctuations are like the market's breath, and my task is to capture the moment when it finishes inhaling and is about to exhale.
In my early trading career, I was fascinated by various complex indicators and mysterious secrets, only to realize after experiencing multiple market lessons that truly effective methods are often simple enough to be unbelievable. As one of my teachers said: 'Complex things sell well, simple things earn steadily.'
The set of 15-minute swing trading strategies I want to share today is the essence distilled from many years of practical experience. It is not only applicable to the futures market but also has reference value for short-term trading in cryptocurrencies (of course, the volatility is greater and the risks are higher).
My core trading weapon: The combination of Bollinger Bands and MACD
Let me clarify one point: No indicator can predict the future with 100% accuracy, but good tools can tell us what state the market is in, and that's enough.
The Bollinger Bands are my 'market thermometer.' When the middle band rises and the price stands above it, it indicates a short-term bullish market; conversely, when the price presses down on the middle band, it signals a bearish trend. The narrowing and widening of the Bollinger Bands signal the market's impending choice of direction.
MACD is my 'momentum detector.' I don't look at its golden crosses or dead crosses, but focus on the increase and decrease of red volume bars. When red volume bars are progressively higher, it indicates that bullish momentum is strengthening, which is an important signal for trend acceleration.
By combining these two, I can find high-win-rate entry points on the 15-minute chart: Market temperature warming + momentum strengthening = my trading signal.
Specific operation process: This is how I execute it
Step one: Filter suitable 'battlefields'
I only choose varieties with smooth trends and good liquidity, avoiding those that are prone to sudden gaps or long upper and lower shadows of 'meme coins.' In traditional markets, rebar, corn, and other varieties meet the requirements. In the cryptocurrency market, I choose mainstream coins and avoid small-cap altcoins.
The reason is: Smooth technical signals for varieties are more reliable and not easily disrupted by sudden noise.
Step two: Set clear entry conditions
My entry conditions are very simple and clear; they must meet the following two points simultaneously:
The price strongly breaks through the middle Bollinger Band: The candlestick quickly breaks through the middle band within three candlesticks after rebounding from the lower band and closes steadily. This speed indicates strong bullish momentum that should not be underestimated.
MACD red volume bars gradually rise: The MACD shows red volume bars, and the next volume bar is higher than the previous one, forming an upward trend. This confirms that momentum is indeed strengthening, not a false breakout.
I once analyzed my trading records and found that trades meeting both of these conditions had a win rate nearly double that of those meeting only one condition. So now, I would rather miss out than make a mistake.
Step three: Risk control is the key to survival
I set my stop loss a few price levels below the lowest point before the price starts. If the calculated stop-loss range exceeds 2% of my account, I will abandon this trade and wait for the next opportunity to retrace to the middle band.
Why so strict? Because small stop losses determine how long you can survive in the market. I've seen too many excellent trading strategies fail due to not executing stop losses.
Step four: Take profit strategy and exit timing
My take profit rule is also very simple:
Ideal situation: After the price breaks above the upper Bollinger Band, wait for it to retrace to the middle band before exiting. This usually allows for capturing the entire segment of the wave.
Conservative choice: If the price drops without touching the upper band, automatically exit when it hits the stop-loss level.
I never pursue selling at the highest point; I'm satisfied with capturing the body of the fish, leaving the head and tail for others.
Trading psychology and capital management: More important than technology
Strict capital management is the cornerstone of long-term profitability. The risk of a single trade will never exceed 2% of my account funds, so even if I lose five times in a row, the account drawdown is controlled within 10%.
In terms of trading psychology, I adhere to the 'Three No Principles': No impatience (wait for a complete signal), no greed (take profits proactively), no luck (stop loss decisively).
I remember there was a time when I missed two opportunities that met my criteria in the morning session. My mindset was a bit off-balance, and as a result, I forced my way into the market on the third incomplete signal, ultimately leading to a stop-loss exit. This lesson made me realize: missing out means just earning a little less, but making a mistake is a real loss.
Conclusion: Repeating simple things
This method seems simple, but it is difficult to execute consistently. The market will always tempt you to deviate from the rules—sometimes out of fear, sometimes out of greed.
True trading wisdom is not about searching for some mysterious holy grail, but about turning simple and effective rules into instinctive responses. When you can remain calm in the face of market fluctuations and mechanically execute a predetermined plan, stable profits will naturally follow.
The market is always changing, but human nature remains the same; this is the fundamental reason why simple strategies can remain effective over time. Make a good plan, then execute it; it's that simple.
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