ETH｜2025-12-23 Market Analysis

ETH attempted multiple highs yesterday without success, and is currently still being constrained within a narrow range of 2950–3050, oscillating horizontally. From the market rhythm, if the goal was just to clear leverage, the spike to 3077 last night basically completed its task, but the price did not drop in line with it; instead, it continued to consolidate at high levels, indicating that the upward intention still exists.

The current price is under short-term retracement pressure, and the next focus will be on the reaction at the 3035–3055 level. If another high is attempted and fails, a technical pullback may occur in the short cycle; however, the main fuel area is concentrated between 2920 and 3120, and it is not ruled out that the daytime market will first attempt a downward movement to clear leverage. If the 2950–2920 range can effectively support, the probability of moving north again and challenging 3100 will significantly increase.

Once 3100 is breached, and if it can stabilize after a pullback to 3050 or directly consolidate above 3120, the upper space will successively open up to 3165 / 3200 / 3350. It is particularly important to note that if 3300 forms effective stabilization, it will mean that the upper boundary of this round of retracement channel has been completely breached, and the market will have the opportunity to enter the first stage of rapid ascent, gradually departing from the current high transaction area. Recently, regardless of bullish or bearish positions, it is not suitable to hold positions, especially short positions, as the upward momentum is gradually increasing, and going against the trend can easily lead to being caught in back-and-forth spikes.

Operational Thought Summary

Today's market structure is relatively clear, just operate around the box:

Small Box: 2950–3050

Large Box: 2900–3100

Bullish Strategy:

Try lightly when the price retraces to the 2900–2950 range, with a stop loss below 2900. The main fuel is still above 2920; if it unexpectedly falls below 2900, it indicates an imbalance in the short-term bullish and bearish positions, with a vacuum area below, potentially directly probing around 2830, and that position may not stabilize, so remember not to hold on.

Bearish Strategy:

Each time the price fails to challenge 3050–3100 and falls back, a light short position can be taken; do not make a pattern trade, just in and out quickly. Overall, today’s short positions are relatively difficult, and the market is more likely to spike upwards repeatedly before retracting. If you already have short positions above 3050, it is recommended to take losses in batches to protect profits and avoid being swept out again.

One-phrase Principle:

Today is not about predicting, but about defending the range, controlling risk, and quick in and out. Direction will be provided, but surviving is more important.