I have seen too many people obsessed with the MACD golden and death crosses, the closing of Bollinger Bands, and even staying up late to watch the Federal Reserve news. As a result, the more they learn, the more confused they become, and in the end, they get cut by the market like leeks. The truth is: the core of trading is not prediction but response. When I entered the market with debt years ago, I also transitioned from 'complex' to 'simple', ultimately achieving stable profits through naked candlesticks. Below are my practical insights; no nonsense, let's get straight to the point!
1. Forget about complicated indicators; the essence of the market is hidden in the candlestick chart.
Many people think that naked candlestick trading is too 'basic' and look down on learning it. But the truth is: all technical indicators stem from price (candlesticks); indicators are just second-hand information and are inherently lagging! For example, the golden cross of MACD often occurs when the market has already moved significantly.
My core logic of naked K trading:
Price contains all information: Big players' actions, market sentiment, and even insider news will ultimately be reflected in K line patterns.
Focus only on 'effective K lines': Most K lines are market noise; the only two types you need to pay attention to are—hammer lines (long lower shadows) and shooting star lines (long upper shadows), which are the 'decisive signals' in the battle between bulls and bears.
Position determines everything: The same K line pattern appearing at the peak and the valley has completely opposite meanings! For instance, a hammer line is only a reversal signal when it appears at the bottom of a downtrend; if it appears in the middle of an uptrend, it may be a trap to lure in buyers.
Beginner's practical advice:
Open the BTC daily chart, hide all indicators, and leave only the K lines. Spend 10 minutes each day practicing:
Identify recent obvious 'highs' and 'lows' and connect them with horizontal lines (support/resistance);
Mark all long shadow K lines, observe their subsequent trends when they appear at support/resistance levels.
Stick to it for a week, and you'll find your sensitivity to price far exceeds reliance on indicators!
2. My high win rate secret: The pin bar strategy (with examples)
This is my most commonly used naked K strategy, consisting of only two core steps:
Step 1: Identify the 'golden K line' pin bar.
Pattern characteristics: Small body, shadow length ≥ 2 times the body (as shown below)
Hammer line (bullish): Long lower shadow, appears at the end of a downtrend.
Shooting star line (bearish): Long upper shadow, appears at the top of an uptrend.
Key principle: The direction of the shadow represents the 'losing side.' For example, the long lower shadow of a hammer line indicates that bears tried to crash the market but were countered by bulls, making a reversal likely in the future.
Step 2: Position filtering, reject false signals!
Pin bars must appear at key levels to be valid:
Hammer line: Close to the previous support level or trend line, with a previous decline on the left side;
Shooting star line: Near the previous resistance level, with a previous rise on the left side.
Case reference (BTC 4-hour chart):
On January 22, 2021, BTC formed a hammer line after dropping to the support level, and then rebounded more than 15% within three days;
If a pin bar appears in the middle of a range, ignore it—this is the market 'dragging its feet,' not a real signal!
3. Stop loss and take profit: The key to survival.
What is most feared in naked K trading? The mindset of luck! I've seen too many people correctly identify the direction but get liquidated simply because they refuse to set stop losses.
My stop loss rules (strictly enforced!)
Fixed position stop loss:
When going long, set the stop loss below the lowest point of the pin bar (breaking below indicates a failed reversal);
When shorting, set the stop loss above the highest point of the pin bar.
Stop-loss rule: If the price quickly recovers after breaking the stop loss, do not chase! The market may be 'sweeping stop losses,' wait for the second signal before considering entering.
The art of taking profit: Don't eat the whole fish, just the fish body.
Basic version: The win-loss ratio should be at least 1:1.5. For example, if the stop loss space is 100 points, the take profit target should be at least 150 points.
Advanced version: Take profits in batches. For example, close 50% of your position when the price reaches the first target, and set a trailing stop (like at the cost price) for the remaining position to let profits run.
Reminder: The crypto market is highly volatile, so don't be greedy! I set my monthly profit target at 10%-20%; once reached, I take a break to avoid frequent trades.
4. Mindset determines the ceiling: Discipline is the only holy grail.
Techniques can be learned quickly, but mindset requires cultivation. My experience:
Reject 'trading addiction': High-quality signals are rare; there may only be 2-3 times a week. If you are staring at the screen all day, it means you've deviated from the right path.
Regular reviews: Statistics of weekly trades on weekends, focusing on analyzing losing trades—Is it a signal problem? Or is it a mindset issue? I have maintained the habit of writing a trading diary to this day.
Accept imperfection: There is no strategy with a 100% win rate. I had three consecutive stop losses, but the fourth trade profited enough to cover all losses. Systematic trading relies on probability, not single outcomes.
Lastly, let me say a few words.
There are no myths in the crypto space, only ordinary people who survive. If you are still losing money now, ask yourself:
Are you always chasing highs and lows, addicted to short-term trading?
Are you holding on until you lose everything, or do you run as soon as you make a little profit?
Have you learned a bunch of indicators but never stuck to one strategy?
Simplify your trading and execute with discipline—that's the core of my journey from debt to stability. I hope this practical information can help you avoid detours. Follow Ake for more firsthand insights and precise knowledge about the crypto world, becoming your guide in the crypto space; learning is your greatest wealth!#ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察 $ETH
