#日本加息后日元反贬值 After Japan's interest rate hike, the yen depreciates (2025-12-19, 17:10 UTC+8) Core
- Event: The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25bp to 0.75% (a 30-year high), and the USD/JPY rebounded by about 1.45% to 157.5, showing a "rate hike leading to depreciation".
- Essence: Fully priced expectations + dovish policy bias + interest rate differentials not reversing + continuation of carry trade, non-rate hikes are ineffective, but constraints are stronger.
Core reasons (by weight)
1. Fully digested expectations, good news fully priced in: The interest rate hike was hinted at the beginning of December, and the 25bp hike fully met expectations; after the resolution, it was a case of “buy the expectation, sell the fact,” with prior long positions taking profits and selling yen.
2. Dovish policy, vague guidance: Governor Ueda did not provide a clear interest rate hike path, only emphasizing “acting based on data,” and the market believes that there is insufficient determination for continued rate hikes, and the rate hike cycle may peak earlier.
3. Disadvantages of both interest rate differentials and real interest rates: The nominal interest rate differential between the US and Japan is still about 4.5% (US 4.5%-4.75% vs Japan 0.75%); Japan's real interest rate is about **-2.15%** (0.75% - 2.9% inflation), while the US real interest rate is positive, and the carry trade (borrowing yen to buy US assets) remains profitable.
4. Loose fiscal policy offsetting tight monetary policy: A stimulus of 18.3 trillion yen was launched on the eve of the rate hike, making it difficult to lower inflation expectations, and the effect of tightening from the rate hike is diluted.
5. Liquidity and sentiment: Liquidity is thin before Christmas, and volatility is easily amplified; concerns about Japan's high debt (Government debt/GDP about 235%) have not dissipated, leading to inadequate long-term confidence.
Key price levels (USD/JPY)
- Support: 156.8→156.0→155.5
- Resistance: 157.5→158.0→158.5
Executable trading strategy (short-term focused, strict risk control)
- Stably short the yen (high probability)
- Entry: Rebound at 157.3–157.5 meets resistance (volume drop)
- Stop loss: 158.0 (breakthrough resistance)
- Take profit: 156.8 (reduce position)→156.0 (liquidate)
- Position: ≤10%, no overnight positions, quick in and out
- Breakthrough strategy
- Upward: If it stabilizes above 158.0 with volume, pursue long positions, target 158.5, stop loss 157.7
- Downward: If it breaks below 156.8 with volume, pursue short positions, target 156.0, stop loss 157.1
Risk control and outlook
- Risk control: Single currency ≤10%, leverage prohibited; reduce positions before the US market opens to prevent liquidity gaps.
- Outlook: The yen is likely to fluctuate between 156.5–158.0 in the short term; it requires clear hawkish guidance from the Bank of Japan + significant narrowing of the US-Japan interest rate differential for the yen to truly strengthen.
