After weeks of consolidation, the pioneering cryptocurrency has regained the level of 90,000 USD. Technical breakouts, the approaching expiration of options, and ETF positioning create conditions for a potentially volatile but bullish year-end on the Bitcoin chart.
Bitcoin surpasses 90,000 USD thanks to technical momentum and year-end market dynamics
Bitcoin has once again broken through the 90,000 USD level, reviving bullish momentum in the crypto market. Technical breakouts, positioning in the derivatives market, and ETF-related motivations converge at low liquidity towards the end of the year.
This move places Bitcoin at a key crossroads. Nevertheless, analysts are divided. Some expect short-term volatility, while others anticipate broad growth towards six-figure valuations.
From a technical standpoint, momentum is clearly turning bullish. On the daily chart, Bitcoin is breaking out of a descending triangle that is transforming into a descending wedge. This phenomenon occurs when momentum rises above the level of 90,000 USD.
In technical analysis, breakouts to the upside from a descending triangle often signal a continuation of the trend. It can thus be inferred that Bitcoin may start a corrective upward rally.
Meanwhile, valuations based on on-chain data also indicate further growth potential. The realized price of Bitcoin, which is the average transaction price of the last BTC transactions, is significantly below the current market levels.
Historically, the king of cryptocurrencies has faced resistance around the mid-band and cycle peaks near the upper band. This suggests that while BTC is trading above fair value, it is still far from levels typical for cycle peaks.
However, at this stage, the risk of short-term volatility is increasing as a significant catalyst from the derivatives market approaches. On Friday, 50% of open positions on the Deribit platform will expire, which is about 24 billion USD in Bitcoin options and other contracts.
According to Nic Pucrin, CEO and co-founder of Coin Bureau, options traders may try to hold the price around the maximum pain level for Bitcoin. Market data indicates that this level is 96,000 USD. Such dynamics may amplify price volatility during low liquidity, holiday trading hours.
Moreover, institutional positioning through spot Bitcoin ETFs is also shaping market sentiment. According to Glassnode data, inflows into ETFs provide a strong impetus for growth at the end of the year. The average purchase price for ETF buyers is around 83,000 USD.
In this context, analyst Ran Neuner claims that Bitcoin may end the year very close to, or even above, 100,000 USD.
The level of 100,000 USD before the holidays is possible
At the same time, liquidity dynamics suggest approaching a key battle zone. Liquidity on Bitcoin is building around the level of 90,800 USD. According to analyst Lennart Snyder, rejection of this zone could trigger opportunities for opening short positions unless Bitcoin regains resistance around 94,000 USD.
Looking beyond the current noise, analyst Michael van de Poppe describes this move as part of a larger cycle shift. The analyst emphasized:
Bitcoin has remained above the key support level of 86,500 USD and continues to climb. I argue that the scenario of testing 100,000 USD is becoming increasingly stronger, and the market may be entering an early phase of a broader bull market.
De Poppe also added that whether altcoins will perform better than Bitcoin in the next stage may determine how this rally will develop in the coming weeks.
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