Brothers, Snowball surged to a market value of 11 million in a day and then quickly fell back. Those watching see it as a celebration, but I see it as a signal.
Many are asking about the direction of the market. My view has always been clear: the market is driven by narrative and capital, and on-chain data never lies.
The case of Snowball perfectly illustrates the current Alpha logic:
The closed-loop of capital is the new narrative: 100% of creator fees are used for market making, which has indeed formed a strong buying spiral in the short term. This is the new game that "smart money" is playing in the Solana ecosystem — using mechanisms to lock in liquidity and create scarcity. This is not just FOMO; it is structural buying pressure.
The emotional wave is spreading: Google search volume has skyrocketed by 230%, indicating that fresh blood and attention are crazily flowing from core assets like BTC and ETH to marginal assets on high-performance chains like Solana. This is a typical precursor to "sector rotation" in the mid-bull market, and high-risk appetite has already emerged.
But the candlestick chart is warning: the 4-hour "inverted hammer" + RSI overbought, combined with the drop at a market value of 8.1 million, clearly tells us: the first wave of speculative positions is taking profits. The potential selling pressure from the Dev wallet is a sword hanging over us.
Therefore, my judgment on the future market trend is as follows:
Short-term (before Christmas): Coins similar to Snowball with “mechanism + holiday narrative” will continue to be active, attracting liquidity premiums. The overall high-risk preference in the market will persist, and speculation will intensify. Small positions can be taken to participate in strong narratives, but stop-loss must be engraved in one’s mind.
Mid-term (1-2 months): Be wary of macro black swans like the Federal Reserve meeting. Once liquidity expectations turn, these Meme coins lacking practicality will be the first to crash. At that time, funds will flow back to leading assets with fundamentals and Layer 2 solutions.
Long-term: Innovation will not stop. Snowball has verified that the “token economic mechanism” itself can become the strongest Meme. In the future, we will see more projects achieving new heights in mechanism design, but only a few will survive through cycles.
My operational strategy:
Maintain an entertainment position within 5% to play with new narratives, feel the market temperature, and strictly execute profit-taking and stop-loss. Large positions are firmly locked in BTC, ETH, and leading protocols in the Solana ecosystem.
