The Cardano network token, Midnight (NIGHT), had a strong start, but the momentum is no longer one-sided. The price of NIGHT is still nearly 300% higher than its lows after launch. Over the past seven days, it has remained close to 70%. However, this tone is quickly changing now.
Only in the last 24 hours, the price of NIGHT has dropped by about 10%, and is currently around 0.095 USD.
This correction matters because it is associated with mixed signals beneath the surface. Some data indicates continued accumulation by large players.
Others suggest that selling pressure is mounting, especially from the inflow of funds from exchanges, which may be tied to the airdrop. As January 2026 approaches, the next move will depend less on euphoria and more on whether big money continues to step in.
Large wallets are accumulating Midnight, but supply on exchanges is increasing.
On-chain wallet holder data shows a clear split between types of behavior.
Exchange balances for NIGHT have surged over the last 24 hours. The exchange holding has increased by 17.97%, boosting the total exchange balance to around 166.14 million tokens of NIGHT. This increase strongly suggests heightened selling activity.
Considering the recent Midnight airdrop and tranche-based distribution, a large portion of this flow is likely early recipients moving tokens to exchanges for profit-taking.
At the same time, mega whales are doing the opposite.
The top 100 addresses have increased their holdings by 1.52% over the last 24 hours, even as the price dropped. This corresponds to approximately 3.6 million tokens of NIGHT added on a red day.
Over the past seven days, these same mega whales have increased their holdings by over 5.6%, continuing to buy both dips and strength, while the price has risen by nearly 70%.
This divergence is significant. Inflows to exchanges reflect short-term selling pressure, often driven by retail trading. Mega whale accumulation reflects long-term positioning.
In January 2026, the balance between these two forces will matter more than the major price movements.
Capital flow and momentum show that big money still matters most
Whale data is not isolated. It closely aligns with what capital flow and momentum indicators show on the chart.
We start with the On-Balance Volume (OBV). OBV tracks whether volume is flowing into or out of an asset. On the 4-hour chart, OBV has retraced along with the price over the last 24 hours. This indicates a weakening of short-term buying pressure. For now, the future price of NIGHT depends on whether OBV can hold above the trend line.
But the weakening of OBV alone does not tell the whole story. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) adds an important layer. CMF measures whether large capital is entering or leaving the market.
CMF moved above the zero line on December 20 and has remained positive since. Although it flattened over the last day, it did not drop. More importantly, between December 22 and 23, the price of NIGHT fell on the 4-hour chart while CMF continued to rise. This is a bullish divergence.
This suggests that even as prices decreased, larger wallets continued to absorb supply in the background.
This is confirmed by Nansen data showing that mega whales added during the decline, even as exchange balances increased.
How important is big money for NIGHT?
VWAP, or the volume-weighted average price, helps to connect these signals. VWAP represents the average paid price weighted by volume and often acts as a short-term guide for trends. NIGHT dropped below VWAP on December 22 and has struggled to regain it since. This shows short-term weakness and explains why price momentum has stagnated.
However, this exact configuration has already been played once. On December 15, NIGHT was also below VWAP. During this time, CMF was rising from negative territory, signaling an increasing inflow of capital. As CMF strengthened, the price quickly recovered VWAP and continued to rise. The price increase was more aggressive when CMF was above the zero line.
This story matters. For new tokens, VWAP breakouts are common in the early phases of distribution. What determines the outcome is not the VWAP itself, but whether capital flow supports a recovery, as it did before.
Simply put, short-term investors are pulling back (likely booking profits), but larger players have not exited. As long as CMF remains positive and whales continue to add on dips, the current weakness looks more like consolidation than a full trend breakdown.
This means that big money remains a key variable in the January 2026 outlook.
Derivatives and price action define the risk zone for January 2026
With the slowdown in capital flow, positioning of derivatives becomes crucial in January.
Current liquidation data for the next 7 days shows that the market is still leaning towards long positions. On Binance, the long exposure for liquidation is close to $3.6 million, compared to about $2.9 million on the short side. This imbalance has decreased after the recent drop, but long positions still dominate.
This creates a fragile configuration.
If the price of NIGHT continues to decline, staying below VWAP, long positions will become vulnerable. A move towards $0.08 would likely trigger forced liquidations, accelerating declines. This scenario aligns with a weakening OBV and stalled CMF.
Key 12-hour price levels clearly outline the framework for January:
$0.101 is the first level that NIGHT must regain. A clean move above it would reduce immediate pressure.
$0.120 is the true confirmation level. A daily close above it would mean NIGHT would return to price discovery and invalidate the current weakness.
$0.071 remains the most critical support on the downside. A breach below this level would reveal deeper retracements towards $0.057 and $0.040.
In January 2026, the path is straightforward. If whales continue to accumulate, CMF will rise again, and the price will recover VWAP, NIGHT may stabilize and enter another phase of expansion. If capital support wanes and leverage remains long, the market risks a reset caused by liquidation before any durable trend emerges.
To check out the latest cryptocurrency market analysis from BeInCrypto, click here.
