A new analysis from researchers reveals that the vast majority of crypto projects that launched tokens in 2025 are now trading below their initial valuations, highlighting growing structural issues with token launches, valuations, and market saturation.
Most 2025 Token Launches Failed to Hold Value
According to research shared by X analyst Ash, 118 crypto projects that conducted token generation events (TGEs) in 2025 were analyzed by comparing their opening fully diluted valuation (FDV) at launch with current FDV levels.
Out of these projects, 100 are now trading below their TGE valuation, meaning 84% of token launches are in the red by year-end. The data suggests that even projects with strong teams, significant funding, and well-planned marketing strategies struggled to sustain token prices after launch.
Deep Losses for Token Sale Participants
The researchers noted that the median token is down 71% in FDV and 67% in market capitalization from its launch price. As a result, most early token sale participants are facing losses approaching 2x drawdowns relative to their initial investment.
Only 15% of TGEs Remain in the Green
Just 15% of 2025 TGEs are currently trading above their launch valuation. The strongest performer is Aster, the governance token of the Aster decentralized exchange, which offers spot and perpetual futures trading. Aster finished the year up 744% from TGE, making it a clear outlier among 2025 launches. The project is backed by Changpeng Zhao, founder of Binance.
Among the limited group of successful TGEs, several projects are also tied to AI-related applications and esports infrastructure, indicating selective investor demand rather than broad market confidence.
Major Projects Among the Worst Performers
Some of the steepest declines came from highly anticipated launches:
– Syndicate Network (SYND) is down nearly 95%, marking one of the worst performances of the year. The platform focuses on custom appchains for gaming and DeFi, offering developers control over sequencing and economic design. – Berachain, a Layer-1 blockchain that entered 2025 with strong hype and community support, is down 93%, underscoring that backing and community alone do not guarantee price stability. – Plasma has dropped around 90%. – Linea is down 81%. – Kaito has declined 68% from its launch valuation.
Overvaluation and TGE Saturation Cited as Key Issues
Many analysts point to excessively high initial valuations, often reaching billions of dollars, as a core problem. In numerous cases, projects may have achieved healthier post-launch performance simply by setting lower entry valuations.
Another factor is the concentration of Tier-1 TGEs in 2025, particularly in Q4. Many teams anticipated a market peak toward year-end and rushed to launch tokens, flooding the market with new supply at a time when investor capital remained limited.
Tokenomics Models Under Pressure
Despite growing numbers of crypto projects and increasingly ambitious valuations each year, the number of active token buyers has not expanded at the same pace.
As a result, analysts argue that token sale structures and tokenomics models need to be re-evaluated, especially as market conditions tighten and competition for capital intensifies.
While broader market sentiment may be shifting toward a more bearish phase, the data suggests that structural issues — not just market cycles — are playing a major role in the underperformance of 2025 token launches.
