As an old player who has been through the crypto market for many years, seeing Bitcoin struggle around $90,000 recently makes me a bit excited— the more panic in the market, the more obvious the opportunities become. This year, Bitcoin has fallen over 22% in Q4, indeed setting the worst record since 2018, but historical experience tells us that after a crash, there often lies the key to a reversal. Below, combining data and personal observations, I will share my views.
1. Current market: Technical rebound or trend reversal?
The recent rebound of Bitcoin to $90,000 feels more like a 'breather after a steep drop.' According to CoinGlass data, the decline in Q4 exceeded 20%, but compared to historical bear markets (such as the 80% crash in 2018 and the $1.4 trillion evaporation in 2022), the current pullback is actually not extreme.
Insufficient Liquidity Amplifies Volatility: Recent trading volumes have noticeably shrunk, a small number of sell orders can crash the price, and a small number of buy orders can pump the price, indicating fragile market sentiment, with large funds still on the sidelines.
Seasonal Patterns Fail: In previous years, Q4 was a peak season for Bitcoin (average increase of 79%), but this year has encountered fluctuations in interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve and uncertainties in Trump's policies, leading to seasonal positives being overshadowed by macro pressures.
I personally believe that any rebound without volume is a paper tiger; unless it consistently holds above 95,000 USD, it's hard to talk about a trend reversal.
2. Why is it said that the 'worst Q4' could be a trap?
The market always tends to amplify short-term data while ignoring cyclical patterns. Looking back:
2018 Bear Market: Bitcoin fell to the point where mining machines were sold by weight, and public opinion was shouting 'the crypto world is dead', yet the following year began a slow bull market.
2022's Series of Crashes: LUNA, Three Arrows Capital, FTX collapsed, Bitcoin dropped from 69,000 to 16,000, but in 2023 institutions accelerated their entry (BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF size exceeds that of gold).
This Q4 drop is essentially the market's overreaction to the Federal Reserve's policies and sentiments regarding the US economy. Trump's declining approval ratings and escalating trade war risks have put collective pressure on risk assets, with Bitcoin being just one of them. However, in the long term, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle and institutions holding more than 5% of Bitcoin's supply indicate that the fundamentals have not worsened.
3. Signals Revealed by Miner and Institutional Movements
Enhanced Resilience of Miners: The current Bitcoin price is still significantly higher than the mining costs in 2018 (at that time, the Antminer S9's mining cost was about 37,000 yuan, while the coin price fell below 26,000), and now mainstream mining machines have improved efficiency, with more flexible hash rate adjustments, reducing the risk of death spiral.
Institutions 'Buy More as Prices Fall': Companies like MicroStrategy and Metaplanet continue to increase their holdings, and net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs have exceeded 40 billion USD. Smart money is hoarding during panic, while retail investors are cutting losses.
My view is clear: Miners haven't shut down en masse, and institutions haven't stopped bottom-fishing; the bear market has not yet reached a point of despair.
4. Operational Suggestions: A Survival Guide for Long-term Investors
Don't Chase Highs in the Short Term: The market is still in a cycle of 'selling during US hours + rebounding during Asian hours', with volatility remaining high, making leveraged trading prone to liquidation.
Investment Window Opened: For long-term players, the 80,000-90,000 USD range has already seen a 30% relative dip from its historical high, allowing for phased investments in Bitcoin and Ethereum (especially focusing on next year's Fusaka upgrade).
Beware of Altcoin Risks: AAVE, SOL, and others are easily affected by governance issues from project parties, leading to independent declines; it's better to focus on mainstream assets.
The market always swings between fear and greed, but cycles do not lie. The poor performance in Q4 resembles a deep washout in a bull market. If you believe in the long-term value of blockchain technology, the current drop is actually a gift. Remember this: 'Markets are born in despair and rise in hesitation.'
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