The United States (USA) Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the first preliminary estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) on Tuesday at 13:30 GMT.

Analysts predict that the figures will indicate a 3.2% annual growth, down from 3.8% growth in the previous quarter.

Markets expect strong GDP growth to continue for three months until September

Growth in the United States appears to have accelerated after contracting by 0.5% from March to June, and the expected figure of 3.2% still indicates healthy economic development, although it is lower than the previous figure.

Growth in the U.S. does not appear to be a problem at the moment. Attention is instead focused on the weak labor market and the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the future of monetary policy, which are clearly related to the cool employment situation.

In addition to the GDP figure, the BLS will release the GDP price index – also known as the GDP deflator – which measures inflation for all domestic goods and services, including exports but excluding imports. The index was at 2.1% in the second quarter, which is an encouraging level compared to the 3.8% at the beginning of the year.

Also, according to the latest estimate from the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, the real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2025 is 3.5%. This figure is not an official forecast, but according to the Atlanta Fed's website, it serves as a 'real-time estimate of actual GDP growth based on available economic data measured for the quarter.'

However, it should be noted that strong employment growth in the second quarter supported stable consumption levels. The same is no longer true for the third quarter, as the labor market has loosened beyond the Fed's comfort level.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November according to the latest Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, exceeding expectations of 4.4%. In the same month, 64,000 new jobs were created, but previous months' figures were revised downward, resulting in the total for August and September being 33,000 lower than previously reported. October data is missing due to the government shutdown, which clearly weakened the employment situation.

On the other hand, based on forecasts and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model, GDP appears to be rising above 3%. Conversely, a weakened labor market could significantly push the figure lower.

When will the gross domestic product be released and how might it affect the U.S. dollar index?

As mentioned earlier, the U.S. GDP report will be released on Tuesday at 13:30 GMT and is expected to impact the U.S. dollar (USD). Market reaction may be heightened due to the winter holiday season and the associated low trading volume.

Due to widespread dollar weakness, a negative number could broadly affect the U.S. currency and weaken it further. Conversely, a better-than-expected reading could support dollar bulls, but it is not expected to change the prevailing downward trend of the dollar.

Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet, notes:

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is hovering around 98.30 before the release, just above the December low of 97.87. Technically, the DXY is on a downward trend. On the daily chart, a flat 100-day simple moving average (SMA) around 98.60 attracts selling pressure and limits upside. In the same curve, a declining 20-day SMA drops more steeply above the larger moving average, reflecting increasing selling pressure. Technical indicators also continue to show a decline in negative territory, aligning with lower development.

Bednarik adds:

A weak GDP reading could push the DXY towards the mentioned monthly low, and further declines could open up a level of 97.46, which was the intraday low on September 30. If the decline continues, the index could approach the threshold of 97.00, where the decline is expected to slow. Friday's high of 98.42 forms immediate resistance before the 100-day SMA (98.60). If it rises above this, the next hurdle is 99.00.