The price of Zcash (ZEC) has dropped by more than 6% in the last 24 hours. Despite the decline, it has maintained an upward trend of about 9% on a weekly basis. However, this drop does not appear to be coincidental. The market is reacting to technical changes that have repeatedly influenced over the past month.
ZEC is testing the point where the current trend, position, and selling pressure align. If this configuration is confirmed by today's daily closing price, the risk of a decline rapidly increases.
Will the long-standing support of the 50-day EMA break in the next decline?
Zcash is in a downward transition. This level has quietly served as a key support line for price stability over the past few months. This level is the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The EMA is a trend indicator that smooths price movements and often acts as a dynamic support line in strong or healthy trends.
For ZEC, this line has played a very important role. When Zcash closed below the 50-day EMA on November 30, the price dropped nearly 30% within a few days. A similar phenomenon occurred on December 14. After closing below the same line, ZEC experienced an additional drop of about 8% in subsequent trades.
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Currently, Zcash is trading below this line again. If today's candle closes below this line, referencing past cases, it can be interpreted that the downtrend is still not over. Therefore, the current decline has more significance than just a simple bearish candle. This suggests that it could transition from a bottom consolidation to an actual downtrend.
Derivatives and spot funds transition to joint bearishness.
This reaction is already appearing in the behavior of traders.
Looking at perpetual futures position data, most tracked groups have increased their short (sell) positions in the past 24 hours. Major traders, whales, and public figures (possibly including influencers) are all increasing their short positions, showing confidence that the price decline is not over yet.
The only difference is that smart money has slightly reduced its short positions. However, this change is not significant enough to alter the overall position trend. Overall derivative data shows that traders are preparing for further declines rather than a quick rebound.
Spot market data also reinforces this perspective. In the Solana-based ZEC spot market, exchange balances increased by over 47% in just one day. Such balance increases generally indicate that coins are moving to exchanges, typically appearing when selling pressure is nearing, but the absolute values are not high.
When derivative positions and spot inflows are in the same direction, the signals become more certain.
Such trends suggest that the loss of trend support is not perceived as a mere breakout. The market is moving with the premise that the risk of further decline is real.
Zcash price range...10% risk?
If the decline in Zcash prices is confirmed, the first key point is around $410. This range acted as short-term support during the recent adjustment. If this range is not maintained, the downtrend could accelerate.
Below this, the next major decline target is near $371. A decline to this range from the current price level would represent about a 10% drop, which is similar to the drop experienced after past EMA breakouts. If selling pressure increases, the prior bottom consolidation range around $295 could also open up.
The reversal scenario is clear. Zcash must distinctly recover above the 50-day EMA and rise above the $470 range to prevent further declines. Only above this range will the structure stabilize again, with the $549 level being the next upward resistance.
Until then, the risk balance continues to tilt downward. Zcash has historically lost important trend indicators, and traders are taking defensive positions. The spot flow also shows that supply is heading into the market. If the daily closing price confirms this situation, the likelihood of continued decline in the short term is high.
