What patterns exist for cryptocurrencies by the end of the year?
#美SEC和CFTC加密监管合作
Macroeconomic events and liquidity: Year-end monetary policy (such as expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts) and the end of quantitative tightening will affect the market. In December 2025, the FOMC ended with hawkish interest rate cuts, the end of quantitative tightening but a slowing path for rate cuts, leading to heightened risk aversion and price fluctuations in crypto assets; historical patterns indicate that liquidity may tend to calm due to reduced holiday activity at the end of the year, lowering market activity, making prices susceptible to 'pump and dump' phenomena.
Seasonality and market behavior: At the end of the year, funds flowing out of exchanges often signal bottoming signals, such as in November 2025 when exchange BTC reserves fell below 2.6 million (the lowest since 2018), with stablecoin reserves remaining stable, reflecting a shift towards long-term holding; on-chain indicators such as SOPR below 1 and MVRV Z-Score entering the green zone historically show that Bitcoin may find a temporary bottom within 1-3 months after such deep capitulation.
Regulatory progress and market structure: Year-end often sees breakthroughs in crypto regulation, such as the approval of Solana and XRP spot ETFs for trading in 2025, with increased product supply driving structural changes in the market; however, the pace of regulatory approvals often progresses in batches rather than all at once, affecting market expectations.
