As the end of 2025 approaches, the cryptocurrency sector looks forward to 2026, which top experts predict will be "the toughest test" the sector has faced so far. This challenge is not about the usual price volatility, but rather a wave of major institutional and economic pressures that will test these assets' ability to transition from a speculative market to a mature part of the global financial system.
Three of the most prominent figures in the financial and economic world adopt different visions warning of coming fundamental shifts.
1. Kelvin O'Leary: Concentration of institutional capital and the death of "coin hunting."
The famous investor and participant in the "Shark Tank" program starts from a simple premise: with the massive inflow of institutional capital (such as pension and investment funds), the rules of the game will change radically.
· From dispersion to concentration: O'Leary cites his personal experience, where he reduced his portfolio from 27 different currencies to just three: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and a stablecoin for liquidity. This shift embodies the path of the entire sector.
· Specific function for each asset: O'Leary defines these three assets based on their function:
· Bitcoin: A hedge against inflation, akin to "digital gold" based on scarcity and decentralization.
· Ethereum: Not a currency, but a foundational infrastructure for a new financial system, and its long-term value is linked to its technology.
· Stablecoins: Held for flexibility and liquidity, not for capital gains.
· 2026 Forecasts: As regulation advances and institutional participation increases, O'Leary expects 90% of institutional capital to concentrate around Bitcoin and Ethereum as core assets, while thousands of other altcoins will struggle to justify their existence, leading to a wave of mergers and widespread disappearances. Investment will shift from speculation on small projects to building a disciplined portfolio as is the case in traditional assets.
2. Yanis Varoufakis: The dollar moves to the chain.. but under whose control?
The Greek economist and former finance minister moves to a deeper level, warning that the real battle in 2026 will be over control of the monetary structures of digital currencies, especially stablecoins.
· System absorption does not challenge it: Varoufakis argues that new U.S. legislation (such as the GENIUS Act) aims to integrate stablecoins as an extension of the existing financial system, not to challenge it. Dollar-denominated stablecoins are used to reinforce the dollar's dominance in global payments.
· Dangerous paradox: It suggests that policies like the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" aim to weaken the dollar's exchange value while maintaining its dominance in payments, creating a contradiction that carries structural risks.
· The risk of centralization and loss of sovereignty: Varoufakis's biggest warning is that countries are relinquishing monetary control. Companies in Malaysia, Indonesia, and Europe are increasingly using stablecoins like Tether, meaning that the central banks of these countries are effectively losing control over the money supply, and thus their ability to implement monetary policy, increasing financial instability.
· Systemic fault line: In 2026, stablecoins will become a "financial systemic fault line." Any major failure of a central issuer of stablecoins could lead to a cross-border financial shock, revealing the greatest vulnerability of digital currencies: not volatility, but their increasing entanglement with traditional power structures.
3. Steve Hanke: Economic recession.. the final exam.
Steve Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and former economic advisor to President Ronald Reagan, presents the macroeconomic scenario in which these tests will take place.
· A recession is coming: Hanke expects the U.S. economy to head toward recession, not due to inflation, but because of political uncertainty (such as volatile trade policies) and weak monetary growth.
· The impact of anticipation: This uncertainty leads to a freeze in investments, as investors prefer to wait until "things stabilize."
· Expected Federal response: Amid deteriorating conditions, Hanke expects the Federal Reserve to respond by continuing a more accommodative monetary policy (lowering interest rates).
· The real test of digital currencies: While Hanke does not directly address digital currencies, his scenario sets the framework for the hardest test of them. Economic cycles characterized by liquidity shortages first, followed by sudden easing, reveal weak structural vulnerabilities in any financial system. In 2026, these conditions will test not only which assets will grow faster but also which infrastructures are strong enough to withstand contraction and systemic pressures.
Summary: 2026 is the year of infrastructure, not speculation.
These three visions converge on a unified picture: 2026 will not be a year for searching for "the next digital currency that will multiply in value a hundred times," but rather a year of careful scrutiny and structural pressure.
The market will sort between assets with real value and function (like Bitcoin and Ethereum) and those that have only speculative stories. More importantly, the entire sector will face existential questions about sovereignty, control, and the degree of its connection to the old financial system that it originally came to fight. The outcome of this test will shape the industry for the next decade.
