$MERL: December supply wave is coming, short-term caution is needed against expectation suppression
[Market Observation: Supply-side pressure has surged]
Recently
the market performance has been relatively heavy, mainly constrained by the dense token release schedule this month. According to data, approximately 70 million tokens will undergo large-scale unlocking on December 12, 15, 16, and 19. The expectation of this continuous 'supply flood' is leading to a reduction in market buying interest, with funding sentiment leaning towards caution.
[Psychological Expectations and Arbitrage Games]
Buying sentiment has weakened: The early release of supply pressure has led holders to tend towards reducing their positions prematurely, suppressing the rebound potential of prices.
Profit realization: Early OTC chip costs are far lower than the current price, and this group of holders has a strong motivation to take profits. In the absence of significant positive support, any slight rebound may encounter selling pressure due to profit-taking.