Bitcoin A wave decline: Has it already ended?

Currently, the trend of Bitcoin A wave decline does not seem to be complete, and it is highly likely to continue to drop, breaking below 80,000, and may even explore around 75,000. The specific reasons are as follows:

Consideration of time structure:

In previous three bear markets, the duration of A wave was approximately between 2.5 months and 4.5 months. If this A wave has already completed, its time length is only one and a half months, which seems a bit unreasonable and may not be sufficient to support a complete adjustment cycle of the bear market. Therefore, from a timing perspective, A wave may not have fully completed yet.

Impact of external environment:

A potential bearish factor is that the MSCI index will decide on January 15 whether to exclude Bitcoin core stock MSTR (MicroStrategy) from its index. According to the current market situation, the likelihood of MSTR being removed is quite high, and if this event occurs, it will lead to $2.8 billion of passive selling pressure, bringing immense stress to the market. If this news triggers fluctuations in market sentiment, it may lead Bitcoin prices to continue to decline, completing the adjustment of A wave.

Analysis of volume and price relationship:

Since November 21, the rebound trading volume of Bitcoin has been relatively small, reflecting insufficient buying strength in the market, while selling pressure still dominates. From this perspective, the selling pressure in the market remains strong, resulting in further downward space for Bitcoin prices.

Conclusion:

In summary, considering the time cycle, external bearish factors, and market trading volume, the decline of Bitcoin A wave may not have completely ended, and it is expected to break below 80,000, and may even further explore bottoming around 75,000. Once these bearish factors are digested by the market, the B wave rebound may gradually unfold.