$BTC Regarding whether the A wave decline of Bitcoin is complete
The A wave of Bitcoin should not be complete yet, and it is highly likely to fall below 80,000, reaching around 75,000. The reasons are as follows:
From the perspective of time structure, the past three bear markets lasted about 1 year, with the A wave duration between 2.5 to 4.5 months; if the A wave has already completed, then this bear market's A wave has only lasted for one and a half months, which is too short and not very reasonable;
From external factors, the MSCI index will decide on January 15 whether to remove Bitcoin's leading stock MSTR, and the probability of removal is quite high; if MSTR is removed, it will directly face a massive passive sell-off of 2.8 billion dollars; this negative factor is very likely to lead Bitcoin to continue declining in January to complete the A wave, and only after the market digests this negative impact will we see a B wave rebound;
From the perspective of volume-price relationship, since November 21, the trading volume of Bitcoin's rebound has been relatively small, indicating that buying pressure is not strong, and selling pressure still dominates, making it more likely for Bitcoin to continue declining
