The weakening of MERL's technical aspect combined with unlocking pressure: A window for short positioning has quietly opened
Recently, the cryptocurrency market has seen increased differentiation among altcoins, but the trend of $MERL outlines a clear "weakening trajectory." Technical resistance is unyielding, and the fundamental unlocking peak looms overhead, under the dual pressure of selling and expectations, short opportunities are gradually becoming evident.
Technical aspect: Key resistance repeatedly unbreakable, structure weakening signals clear
In the past few weeks, $MERL has attempted to charge towards the $0.5 key psychological and technical level three times, all of which have failed. Each time approaching this level, significant selling pressure emerged, with trading volume simultaneously increasing, forming a "structural resistance ceiling." This repeated failure to break through often indicates that bullish power is nearing exhaustion.
What is even more alarming is the divergence between volume and price. When hitting resistance, buying appears enthusiastic but lacks sustainability; after a brief rally, it quickly falls back, exposing the cautious attitude of major funds at this position—unwilling to push higher, the upward momentum has indeed long since waned. Coupled with short-term corrections in BTC and ETH suppressing the overall market risk appetite, the difficulty for $MERL to break through the $0.5 level has increased further in the absence of macro momentum support.
Fundamental aspect: December's unlocking peak is approaching, selling pressure expectations continue to ferment
Beyond the weakening technical aspects, the fundamental "time bomb" cannot be ignored. In December (12/12, 15, 16, 19), $MERL will face a dense unlocking, with a total of about 70 million tokens being released, significantly expanding the circulating supply. Even if OTC holders do not immediately sell off completely, the market's expectation of a "supply peak" has already started to ferment: buyers retreat due to concerns over selling pressure, and holders reduce positions in advance to avoid risk, further suppressing the price rebound potential.
Early OTC investors have costs far below the current price, and now facing quotes around $0.4, the motivation to take profits is very strong. Any technical rebound may become an opportunity for this batch of "low-cost arbitrage positions" to cash out, forming a negative feedback cycle of "rebounds leading to selling pressure."
Comprehensive judgment: Selling pressure tramples buying, a downward cycle may start
With effective technical resistance, a massive unlocking imminent, and on-chain funds showing signs of withdrawal (recent exchange net inflow data shows an increase in large holders withdrawing coins), under the combined influence of multiple factors, the intensity and certainty of selling pressure far exceed the potential buying support. The market is likely to fall into a downward cycle of "selling pressure expectations → price decline → panic intensification"; at this time, positioning short on rallies is an opportunity that aligns with the weakening structure.
Trading strategy: Precise positioning to capture short opportunities
Entry points can refer to three levels: Aggressive traders can short directly at the current price of $0.38-$0.40, betting on a second bottom after a weak rebound; conservative traders can wait for a pullback to $0.42-$0.43 (previous low neckline) to enter; the cautious can observe for confirmation of a pullback after breaking below $0.35 (recent low) before adding positions.
Stop-loss settings must be strict, uniformly capping above $0.48—only a significant breakthrough above the previous high and a stable hold could potentially reverse the downtrend, and this stop-loss position can effectively guard against black swan events.
Target levels are divided into three tiers: the first target is $0.30 (strong support zone), the second target is $0.25 (panic selling pressure level), and the extreme is $0.20 (liquidity exhaustion price after unlocking).
From the candlestick chart, the daily line of $MERL has formed a descending channel, with highs (0.55→0.52→0.49) and lows (0.32→0.30→0.28) moving down simultaneously, with each rebound serving as a "continuation of the decline"—do not attempt to bottom-fish against the trend.
Current market sentiment and structure both indicate a bearish advantage; rather than betting on uncertain rebounds, it is better to seize short opportunities in line with the trend. What are your thoughts on the subsequent trend of $MERL? Feel free to leave a message sharing your trading ideas.
