Bitcoin on track to record the second worst Q4 in history after heavy losses
Bitcoin is on track to record its second-worst fourth quarter in history, trailing only the 2018 crypto winter. While the scale of the drawdown in 2025 is still less severe than in 2018, performance has been significantly worse than in other weak years such as 2014, 2019, and 2022. This places 2025 beyond the scope of a mild correction and closer to a full-scale collapse.
Historically, the fourth quarter has been Bitcoin’s strongest period, delivering an average return of around 77% and often acting as a year-end recovery phase. This year, however, reality has diverged sharply from historical norms. Bitcoin has fallen nearly 23% in Q4, completely reversing expectations and erasing most of the gains accumulated during the second quarter. Ending the year with a sharp decline has weighed heavily on investor psychology, reinforcing the belief that the market has entered a prolonged downtrend.
According to CryptoQuant’s December 2025 report, the primary driver behind the sell-off is demand exhaustion. The key buyer groups that fueled the 2024–2025 rally, including spot ETF investors and corporate treasuries, have largely stepped back. At the same time, multiple signals suggest that whales have exited the market. Meanwhile, expectations of a year-end rally left many traders who bought in November trapped in losing positions.
