CZ & Tom Lee are eyeing a "supercycle"... and it's sending shivers down my spine ๐ฅถ.
This reminds me of Zhu Su, founder of Three Arrows Capital, back in 2021. He wasn't known for returns, but for his "supercycle" narrative. The idea? Crypto had broken free from traditional bull/bear cycles. Institutions were piling in, adoption was accelerating, and global liquidity was endless. No more multi-year bear markets, no more deep corrections.
His prediction was audacious: $BTC wouldnโt just rise, it would enter an โup onlyโ state, potentially reaching $2.5 million. $ETH, with EIP-1559 and PoS, would start at $25,000. This fueled massive hype, growing 3AC to billions in AUM.
Then 2022 happened. LUNA imploded, deleveraging hit, and liquidity vanished. 3AC was caught completely off guard, leading to its collapse and billions in losses. The supercycle didnโt materialize โ a brutal liquidation did.
Zhu Su later admitted the price prediction was wrong, but still believes in cryptoโs long-term potential. The lesson? Grand narratives can inflate bubbles, but they canโt defy cycles. Ignoring drawdowns and risk often leads to ruin. ๐
Supercycles sound great, but markets *always* correct.
#Crypto #Supercycle #MarketCycles #RiskManagement ๐ก
