When the market gives you a breather of 16% in just four days, it's tempting to think we've already won the war, but the reality on the Curve DAO (CRV) chart tells us that this could be a trap for those who trade with their hearts and not their heads. 📉
Mira, let me explain how the turnaround is: CRV has been dragging a heavy downward trend since August. Recently we saw the price drop to $0.33, and out of nowhere, it jumped to $0.385. Anyone would say: "That's it, we are going to the moon!", but hold on a second. 🛑 That movement seems more like a "liquidity grab" than a real change in direction. In simple terms: the price rose just to shake out those who were betting short and for whales to find better prices to keep selling.
For us to feel confident that this is going up, the buying volume (that indicator we call OBV) would have to be through the roof, and the truth is it barely moved. Moreover, that barrier of $0.372, which previously served as a floor, has now become a concrete ceiling that is difficult to break. The moving averages, which are like the thermometer of the trend, continue to tell us that the patient still has a bearish fever. 🤒
The most likely scenario, although it hurts to say it, is that this "relief rally" will run out of gas soon. If CRV cannot stay above $0.38 and consolidate, it is very likely that we will see it revisit $0.33 or even drop to levels of $0.24, which is where there is actually long-term support. In trading, sometimes the bounce is not the start of the party, but the last goodbye before continuing to fall. 🎢
What do you say? Do you think Curve has enough strength to break that barrier and silence the charts, or are we witnessing the typical dead cat bounce before looking for new lows?$CRV
